Key factors that will decide Nifty & Bank Nifty futures trend ahead of F&O expiry
Nifty & Bank Nifty futures trend ahead of Sept. F&O expiry: Indian benchmark indices were flat last week while the midcap and smallcap indices closed higher. The IT and Pharma sectors supported the markets whereas Bank Nifty closed lower on weekly basis. The mixed global cues created some uncertainties in the market last week. You can also read last week’s market updates here
The key factors that will influence Nifty & Bank Nifty futures ahead of expiry
Global Equity Markets news Updates
After the last week’s monetary policy announcements by Fed, BoE, and BoJ we have some negative movements in the global equity markets. Traders are now concerns about the fiscal stimulus in the US as the prospects dimmed for the passage of an expanded fiscal support package.
And in Europe, the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a free-trade agreement is rising. The resurgence of new coronavirus infection is also a concern for the European region. Overall, in the US and Europe, it looks the markets may trade sideways to negative in the next week.
Among Asia countries, though exports and industrial production in Japan have shown signs of improvement, still corporate revenues, income, and business sentiments are in negative trends. The strong economic recovery already witnessed in China this year. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), China is the only country expected to see positive economic growth this year. Asian markets may trade mixed in the coming week.
The global market sentiments will also depend on the macroeconomic data that are going to release next week. Traders should keep a close eye on the release of the below-mentioned data.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 23rd Sept | Manufacturing & Service PMI | Japan |
| Manufacturing & Service PMI | UK | |
| Manufacturing & Service PMI | US | |
India-China Cross border tension
India China both the countries have agreed to disengage their troops from the disputed border in Ladakh. Both countries have also agreed on a five-point plan to de-escalate tension. But still, the issue is not resolved China is constantly trying to increase its deployment from Aksai China to the line of mutual control areas. As per India TV news, China wanted to deploy 50 soldiers in the Pangong Tso area, but India’s response was a clear no.
Traders should continue to keep a close watch on the India-China border issue for the coming days.
Coronavirus news
In the last seven days, India reported an average of 90,000 new coronavirus cases in the country. India’s total confirmed coronavirus cases crossed more than 54 Lakhs now and currently standing the second position in the global tally after the US. The resurgence of coronavirus cases in European countries is also a concern for the markets.
The increase in coronavirus cases is due to the sharp increase in testing and secondly due to unlock. But the good part is there is a consistent development in the recovery and fatality rate in India. Regarding the development of the vaccine, there are almost thirty companies in the trial phase and three are the most advanced stage. The world can expect a complete trail vaccine end of 2020.
Traders need to watch closely the coronavirus related news and developments of vaccine for the next week.
Nifty and Bank Nifty futures ahead of F&O expiry
Nifty futures trade setup for next week
Primary Trend of Nifty futures next week: Mild Negative to Range-bound
Range-Bound Trend of Nifty futures: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11600 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 11450
If Nifty share price in futures Moves Above 11535 and sustain. Then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11558 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 11485 FOR the Target of 11558 – 11594- 11631- 11668
Suppose Nifty share price in futures Moves Below 11485 and sustain. Then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11456 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 11535. FOR the Target of 11456- 11418- 11380-11346
Bank Nifty trend in futures for next week
Primary Trend of Bank Nifty future for next week: Mild Negative
Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty share price in future: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 22700, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 21650
Bank Nifty share price in the future Moves Above 22320 and sustain. Then you should Buy with the 1st Target of 22480 during the day with a Stop Loss of 21920. FOR the Target of 22480 – 22670- 22860- 23220
If Bank Nifty shares price in the future Moves Below 21920 and sustained. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 21780 during the day with a Stop Loss of 22640. FOR the Target of 21780 – 21650- 21440 – 21085
FIIs and DIIs movement
FIIs are the buyers and DIIs are sellers in the cash market segment in September. So far till 18th September, FIIs bought Rs 1276.34 crores whereas DIIs sold Rs 5667.47 crores in the cash market segment.
FIIs invested less than 10% so far till 18 September compared to what they invested in August in the cash market. If we analyze the DIIs movement they have sold almost in the same line they had done in the last month.
Conclusions:
Next week Indian markets will have F&O expiry for the September series. The uncertainties in the market can create a tight range of volatility in the market. Traders are advised to remain cautious and trade with strict stop loss in the market.
Traders can follow our daily share market live views and Nifty and Bank Nifty futures prediction
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