Key factors that will influence Nifty and Bank Nifty share price next week

 

Sensex, Nifty & Bank Nifty share price last week: The Nifty share price in the last week closed at 71.05 points or 0.82% down and at 8674.40.  Whereas the Sensex share price was declined by 100.35 points or 0.34% during the week and closed at 29815.59. Last week the Nifty index has touched a low of 7511 first time after March 2016.

The Bank Nifty share price in the last week was down by 406.6 points or 2% and closed at 19911. The Nifty midcap fell 897.9 or 7.13% while Nifty small caps declined by 318.3 or 8.38% during the week.

 

Sensex, Nifty& Bank Nifty share price last week

The weekly gainers and losers of the Nifty 50 stocks

Weekly Nifty50 Stocks Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Infosys	652.7	585.2	11.53
Kotak Mahindra Bank	1399.1	1262.35	10.83
UPL	322.2	300.15	7.35
Nestle India	15108.6	14145.5	6.81
Bharti Infra	156.8	148.15	5.84
Weekly Nifty50 Stocks Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Bajaj Finserv	4890.6	6233.05	21.54
Axis Bank	359.75	428.15	15.98
Vedanta	63.75	75.45	15.51
IOCL	76.9	90.6	15.12
GAIL (INDIA)	69.5	80.8	13.99

 

The weekly gainers and losers of Nifty midcap stocks

Weekly Nifty Midcap 100 Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Prestige Estate	194.45	157.65	23.34
Mannapuram Fin	106.80	97.55	9.48
Weekly Nifty Midcap 100 Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Yes Bank	26.35	45.85	42.53
M&M Fin Serv	160.9	210	23.38

 

The weekly gainers and losers of Nifty smallcap stocks.

Weekly Nifty Smallcap 100 Gainers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Navin Fluo Int	1290.9	1186.55	8.79
Godfrey Philips	918.1	850.8	7.91
Weekly Nifty Smallcap 100 Losers
Company Name	LTP	Previous Close	Change (%)
Sobha	130.65	180.4	27.58
PNC Infratech	90.9	125	27.28

Among the sectors in NSE, IT & Software is the only gainers whereas other sectors closed in red last week. NSE Realty, Media, Metal, Automobiles, and PSU Banks fell 5-8% during the week.

The last day of the week and the first day of the April derivative series both FIIs and DIIs bought in the cash segment. In the last week, FIIs sold Rs 7165 crores whereas the DIIs bought Rs 4307.37 crores in the cash segment.

 

Derivative Segment in the last week

Last Thursday there was derivative expiry, the Nifty share price in March Series future declined more than 24% down. Whereas the Bank Nifty was down by 10027.1 points or 34 percent in March series.

In April Series, the Nifty future share price opened at 8938.65 while the Bank Nifty share price in the future opened at 20251. The Nifty share price closed in flat to negative while Bank Nifty share price closed at 447.10 points or 2.31% higher on the last day of the week.

The RBI repo rate cut on the last day of the week made the Indian equity market volatile for the day. The 75 bps repo rate at 4.4% has boosted the banking stocks on last Friday. The 3 months moratorium period given for all EMI holders is a welcome step in the current situation. The CRR cut to release Rs 1.37 lakh crore into the market.

 

Other news that impacts the Nifty share price last week

Moody sees India’s GDP growth at 2.5% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021 as the various media reports.

To take care of the poor in the current situation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced the Gareeb Kalyan Scheme of Rs 1.70 Lakh crores last Thursday.

Fitch Rating has revised the Indian Bank’s rating from ‘bb++’ to ‘bb’ as increasing challenges from the coronavirus outbreak pandemic.

The commodity exchanges MCX and ICEX have cut down the trading hours up to 5 pm from the 30th March to 14th April due to coronavirus outbreak.

On 23rd March 8 pm, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation and announced a completed lockdown for 21 days from the 24th of March to stop spreading coronavirus.

The economic package was announced on 23rd March as per the package there is an extension of holding board meetings, an extension of filing of Income-tax, an increase of threshold limit to approach IBC and more.

The global rating agency S&P on Monday cuts India’s estimated GDP growth in the 20-21 fiscal year to 5.2% from its earlier estimate of 6.5%. This is due to the coronavirus outbreak and its economic impact on the country.

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The key factors that will influence the Nifty share price next week

Coronavirus impact

The Indian stock market will behave like the global market next week. Globally the coronavirus outbreak has dampened the market sentiment. The market will now zoom if there is any positive news on this front. On the domestic front if the graph of coronavirus active cases declines in the next week during the 21 days lockdown then the market sentiment may improve.

 

Auto Sales

As per the scheduled on 1st April the auto sales figure will be announced for March 2020. Due to the coronavirus outbreak and nationwide lockdown, it is obvious that we can’t compare the March Auto sales figure with the previous month or year. The auto companies will take an additional period to cop the dent done by the deadly virus even after everything gets normalized

 

Stimulus Package

The last time while announcing the Gareeb Kalyan Scheme by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, she has also announced that more stimulus package is yet to come. We can also expect a stimulus package for Industries and MSME in the coming days and this can also boost the market sentiment.

 

Technical views of Nifty and Bank Nifty for next week

Primary Trend Nifty Futures: down

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Futures: Nifty future will range from 7600-9300 during the week 

Primary Trend of Bank Nifty Future:  down

Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty Future: Bank Nifty future will move in the range of 17500- 23100 during the next week

The India VIX has come down from 86 to 70 in the last week. The market volatility will continue to be there in the coming week due to coronavirus and its impact on the global economy.

 

FIIs contribution to the Indian market

In the March series, FIIs sold around Rs 59K crore whereas bought Rs 355.78 crores on the first day of the April series. FIIs have bought almost after one month and if the buying streak continues then we may see a positive sentiment in the Indian market.

 

Macro data

The Infrastructure output data, PMI Markit Manufacturing data will be released next week. But these macro data will not have any impact on the market in the current situation.

 

Crude and Rupee Update

The crude is trading at 17 years low due to subdued demand in the market after the coronavirus outbreak. The lower crude oil prices are good for importing countries like India and China, India imports 85% of crude oil needs. The international benchmark Brent crude future is presently trading at $25.06 per barrel.

The Indian rupee has touched the lower level at Rs 76.39 in the last week and closed at Rs 75.47 against the US dollar on the last day of the week.

 

Conclusion:

The global and domestic market sentiments are subdued due to the coronavirus for the last two months. Next week the Nifty share price will move based on the above mention key factors. The market sentiment will remain negative and volatile for the next week. Traders should be cautious and trade with stop loss, carry forward position should be avoided.

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Editor’s Desk