Indian Stock Market Prediction Next Week (15 to 18 Nov)
Indian Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 15 to 18 Nov 2021): Indian stock markets finished one percent higher during the week ended 12 November amid volatility. Markets gained for the second consecutive week in a row with the support of domestic institutional investors (DIIs). FIIs were the net seller during the week whereas DIIs bought more than FIIs sold during the week. Markets were traded negatively in the mid of the week due to weak global cues, as US inflation surged at the fastest rate in 30 years. You can read detailed weekly market updates here.
Indian stock markets will remain closed on Friday 19 November on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti. During the truncated week, the market will first react to corporate earnings released during the weekend, Industrial output, and CPI Inflation data. Next week, global cues will also impact the domestic markets as many countries will be releasing their inflation rate and important economic data.
Key factors that may impact the Indian stock market prediction next week
Q2FY22 Earnings
Almost all Nifty 50 Companies have announced their second-quarter earnings so far. Last weekend, Grasim, Hero Motor Corp, ONGC, and Hindalco have released their quarterly earnings. Barring hero motor other three companies have beat street estimates. On Monday, the Indian stock market will react to the corporate earnings that were announced post-market on Friday.
Global cues
Global markets were closed mixed during the week ended 12 November. The US markets closed lower on a weekly basis as the inflation rate surged and on fear of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. European and Asian markets closed higher during the week on positive corporate earnings, dovish central bank comments, and stable bond yields. Next week, investors will closely watch out for inflation rate, Industrial production, and other below given economic data.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 15 November 21 | Industrial Production YoY Oct | China |
| 15 November 21 | Retail sales | China |
| 15 November 21 | Unemployment rate | China |
| 15 November 21 | Industrial Production SEP | Japan |
| 16 November 21 | Unemployment rate SEP | GB |
| 16 November 21 | Retail Sales | US |
| 16 November 21 | Export/ Import | US |
| 16 November 21 | Industrial Production YoY Oct | US |
| 16 November 21 | Balance of Trade EXP/IMP | Japan |
| 17 November 21 | Inflation Rate Oct | GB |
| 18 November 21 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 18 November 21 | Inflation Rate Oct | Japan |
| 19 November 21 | Retail Sales | GB |
Domestic Economic data
The Indian government has released CPI-based inflation and Industrial Production data on 12 November, last Friday. On Monday, Indian markets will first react to CPI inflation that rose marginally 4.48 percent in the month of October 2021 as compared to 4.35 percent in September. The rise in retail inflation is due to higher food prices.
However, the retail inflation was 7.61 percent in the same period last year. This is the fourth month in a row the retail inflation is under RBI’s comfort zone. As the government of India had told RBI to maintain a retail inflation rate at four percent with an upper and lower margin of two percent on either side for five years.
The IIP data for the month of September rises 3 percent as compared to 11.9 percent in August, this was due to the low-based effect ending by August. Though the CPI inflation has slightly increased in October, the market may not react negatively on Monday. The market will have WPI and Export and Import numbers on Monday.
Indian Stock Market Index Prediction- Nifty, Bank Nifty Futures for next week (15- 18 Nov)
Nifty futures current position is on Buy, traders can continue the Buy position and reverse to the short position if Nifty futures close below 18000.
Bank Nifty futures current position is Buy, traders can continue the Buy position and reverse to the Sell position if Bank Nifty futures close below 38390. You can also read Nifty and Bank Nifty futures prediction for Monday, 15 November here
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FII & DIIs flow
Last week, the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) supported the Indian markets to close higher. DIIs bought Rs 5393.52 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 12 November. FIIs were the net seller in the cash market, they sold Rs 4901.76 crores.
Going ahead, Federal Reserve’s bond tapering by $15 billion from the current month and the fear of rate hike sooner than expected due to rising inflation may increase the momentum of FIIs outflow. Investors should closely watch out for FIIs movement to know the market trend.
Coronavirus risk & Vaccination
The daily new cases of Covid-19 infections are less than 15000 in India. The declining covid cases are supporting the Indian stock markets whereas in European countries covid cases are surging. In Europe, the partial lockdown has been imposed in many countries.
India has administered more than 111 crores Covid-19 vaccination so far and 32.80 percent of people have completed their second doses as compared to 31.55 last week. It is due to the acceleration of vaccination drive that the country’s daily infection rate is declining. But we cannot rule out the third wave, so investors should closely watch out for covid numbers.
Conclusions:
Overall Indian market is looking positive next week at this moment, the global cues will drive the markets. Traders need to closely watch out for the above key factors that may impact the Indian stock market directions next week.
You may also like to read, Share Market Books in Hindi | शेयर मार्किट हिन्दी बुक्स
Happy Investing!!
Editor’s Desk
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