Weekly Market Analysis: Nifty and Sensex gained 1.38% on the global market support

 

Weekly Market Analysis: Indian stock market gained in the last week. The domestic macro data released last week was not supportive of the market. The FIIs fund flow and other global market cues supported the Indian market to gain more than 1.35% last week. 

 

Market analysis of various indices  and stocks in the last week

During the week, the Nifty gained 165.2 points while Sensex added 564.56 points. The Bank Nifty index gained 672.7 points or 2.17% in the last week. The PSU Banking index has lifted the Bank Nifty index, it has gained more than 4% in the last week.

The top weekly gainers in the Nifty are Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Eicher Motors, Vedanta and Hindalco. These stocks gained 5-9% and the Tata motors gained the most, 9% last week. The last week’s losers are Yes Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Bharti Infra, and Zee Entertainment. The Yes Bank fell the most 16.70 % last week.

The Nifty midcap 100 index gained 200.40 points or 1.19% on a weekly basis. Whereas the Nifty smallcap index fell 44.80 points or 0.81% during the week.

On a weekly basis, sectors like Automobile, Metals, Banking and finance, Oil& Gas, Power are the gainers. The sectors which closed in red are IT& Software, Telecom, and FMCG.

In the last week, FIIs and DIIs both were net buyers in the cash segment. The FIIs bought Rs129.71 crore and DIIs bought Rs 1848.35 crore in the cash segment.

 

A derivative market analysis last week

The Nifty future opened at 11855.30 on 9th December last Monday, the Nifty future made a low at the same price last week. On Friday, 13th of December it has touched the weekly high at 12152. During the week it has given a movement of 296.7 points. 

The Bank Nifty future opened at 31374.90 last Monday morning and touched the weekly low 31065.30 on 11th Dec last Wednesday 11th Dec. It has touched a weekly high on last Friday 13th of December at 32230. On weekly wise, the Bank Nifty future has given a movement of 1164.70 points.

Both the indices Nifty future and Bank Nifty future closed near the weekly high and in the positive zone. We may see more uptrend in the coming week.

 

Weekly market news and happenings

On 9th December the SEBI has given approval for Bharat Bond ETF, it has opened on 12th December till 20th December. The Bond size is Rs 7000 crore with a greenshoe option of Rs8000 crore.

Due to the weaker outlook for China and India, The Asian Development Bank (ABD) has lowered the growth forecast for Asia this year. ABD has also lowered forecast for India for 2019 and 2020 to 5.1% and 6.5% from its earlier estimates of 6.5% and 7.2%. The reason behind this is slow job growth and NBFC liquidity crunch.

The CPI number announced for November last Thursday 12th December was 5.54%  compared to 4.62% in October. It has come higher because of higher food inflation and it was at 3 years high now. 

The Industrial output number IIP  has been contracted for three consecutive times in October. The October months IIP number was -3.8 compared to -4.3 on a MoM basis. The weak CPI and IIP numbers were already discounted in the market so it has got no impact on the market last week. 

Last Friday, the market was higher because of global factors. Firstly the British prime Minister Boris Jonson has got the full majority in the parliament so the Brexit will be done smoothly. The second factor was the US-China Trade deal has become closer.

Moody has cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 5.6% because of slow job growth and consumption. The growth is also expected and had no impact on the market.

 

Next week market events

The next week on the domestic front there is no major event. The WPI inflation number will be announced on 16th Monday. The 38th Goods and Services Tax (GST) council meeting is scheduled for the 18th of December. The council will meet to discuss the alternative mechanism for the compensation cess to boost the revenue through indirect tax. 

The minutes of the RBI monetary policy will be released on Thursday 19th December.

On the global front, we may see a positive development in phase one trade deal signing between the US and China.

 

Nifty and Bank Nifty future Analysis for the next week

Primary Trend Nifty Futures: Sideways Up

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Futures: 11970 – 12300

Primary Trend of Banknifty Future:  Sideways Up 

Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty Future: 31400- 32900

 

Crude and Rupee updates

The crude oil prices are trading higher on the expectation of trade deal signing development. The Brent crude future was closed at $64.93 per barrel almost at three months higher. On a weekly basis, it has gained 1.29% from the previous close.

The Indian rupee has closed at Rs 70.80 against the US dollar. It has got an appreciation of around 1% in the last week.

 

Conclusions 

We have done an analysis of last week’s market, despite the weak macro data, the Indian stock market rose more than 1% in the last week. The reason for the positive market sentiment was due to positive global cues and FIIs inflow. The Indian market has already factored the weak macro data and growth cut for the current financial year. 

Next week the positive trend may continue in the Indian stock market. The hopes and expectations for Trade deal signing can create positive sentiments in the market for the next week. Traders can follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty technical views and market analysis on our website.

 

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Editor’s desk