Weekly Share Market Prediction ( 22 to 26 Nov 2021)
Weekly Share Market Prediction ( 22 to 26 Nov 2021): Indian share markets declined almost 2 percent during the week ended 18 November, after two weekly consecutive gains. The broader markets also fell in line with their larger peers during the truncated week. The auto sectors gained the most while the metal sector was the top loser for the week.
The domestic markets were down last week due to a spike in inflation, selling pressure from FIIs, and mixed cues from global markets. Monday, markets will open after a long weekend as NSE & BSE were shut on Friday 19 November, on account of Gurunanak Jayanti.
The key factors that are likely to impact the share market prediction next week
Weekend News to impact the Share Market
Last week, Indian markets were declined due to a spike in inflation, this concern will continue to hunt investors as it is not proving to be temporary as per market experts. Other than this, Indian markets will first react to the news of the withdrawal of the Farm Law bills. Heavyweight Reliance is going to put some pressure on the markets after news that its deal with Aramco has been canceled. In the coming week, there are not any major events on the domestic front, markets will trade as per global cues and news.
Global Market Cues
The global markets were closed mixed last week. On Friday, European and the US markets were closed mostly in the red due to a surge in coronavirus cases in European countries. The travels-related stocks in Europe have seen corrections, as some countries have reimposed covid related restrictions and lockdowns. Investors were concerned about the global economic recovery after the recent surges of Covid infections in the region.
Meanwhile, the sharp rise of US inflation released the previous week is an ongoing concern in the equity markets. As experts feel it could force the Federal Reserve to turn more hawkish in the upcoming policy meeting in December 2021 with a likely higher quantum of tapering and a sooner than expected rate hike in 2022.
Other than the above concerns, the important economic data that are likely to impact the Indian share market prediction are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 22 November 21 | Loan Prime Rate | China |
| 23 November 21 | Markit/CIPS PMI Flash November | GB |
| 23 November 21 | Markit/CIPS PMI Flash November | US |
| 24 November 21 | Jibun Bank PMI Flash November | Japan |
| 24 November 21 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel/ Est Q3 | US |
| 24 November 21 | Jobless Claim, Retail Inventors, Home Sales | US |
| 25 November 21 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 26 November 21 | Tokyo CPI YoY Nov | Japan |
Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures prediction for the week (22- 26 Nov)
Nifty futures current position is on Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Nifty futures close above 17865.
Bank Nifty futures current position is Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Bank Nifty futures close above 38550
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the seller and the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the buyers in the Indian stock markets during the week ended 18 November. FIIs sold 4410.88 crores whereas DIIs bought Rs 3926.53 crore in the cash market segment during the week.
In the last financial year, FIIs were the buyers and DIIs were the seller, this year it got reversed, FIIs turned sellers while DIIs supported the markets. In the first half of November month FIIs have been sellers in the banking and IT sectors. As per market experts, the current market trend indicates that FIIs are likely to sell at every rise since most foreign brokerages have a sell call on India on concerns of stretched valuations. Traders should closely watch out for the FIIs flow in the Indian equity markets
Coronavirus risk & Vaccination
In India, less than 13000 new covid cases were reported on a daily basis. The positivity rate is below 1 percent and the recovery rate is above 98 percent. This indicates a continuous declining stage of covid infections in India. Whereas the situation in European countries is different altogether. Due to the recent surge in daily covid cases, some European countries have reimposed the covid related restrictions and lockdown in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, etc. Stock markets in US and Europe tumbles last Friday due to the recent restrictions and lockdowns imposed in Europe.
The rapid progress in Covid Vaccination in India is the main reason that curbed the spread of deadly infections during the festive season. So far India has administered more than 115 crore Covid Vaccine doses in the country. Investors should closely watch the recent spread of covid infections as this can dampen the market sentiments globally.
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