6 factors that will decide share market trend next week
6 factors that will decide the share market trend next week, Nifty and Bank Nifty prediction
Share Market Trend Next Week: The market gained more than 1% last week with the support of Asian market cues and ease of Indo-China border tension. The support from the heavyweight Reliance and IT stocks also helped to trade the benchmark indices higher. You may also like to read last week’s market updates here
Share Market Trend for next week
The 6 Key factors that will decide the Share Market Trend next week are given below
Global Equity Markets trends
Indian share market trend largely depends on global cues or their global peers. This is because of a large number of companies getting engaged with foreign companies through export, import, investment, foreign business set up, etc. Therefore share price movements of these companies are more likely to be affected by the development of the world economy.
Next week the market will closely watch global cues for getting the direction in absence of any major domestic events. The outcome of the FOMC meeting is expected by Wednesday midnight, all eyes will be on the commentary with respect to the US economic recovery and the much-awaited stimulus package.
The domestic market may trade cautiously on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome and would react as per the commentary on Thursday. Other global events that may influence the Indian share market trend for next are given below
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 14th Sept | US Consumer Inflation Exp | US |
| 15th Sept | Industrial Production | China |
| Industrial Production | US | |
| 16th Sept | Inflation rate | GB |
| FOMC Economic projection | US | |
| 18th Sept | Core Inflation | Japan |
Cross border tension
After the news of disengagement of the India and Chinese troops from the disputed border, the immediate tension has become eased. But the market will closely watch the development at the India-China border. Traders maintained a cautious approach on this front as there is a lack of any official statements from the high-level talks that defuse the border tension.
Coronavirus news
In India coronavirus infection cases are increasing day by day. This is because of the relaxation of lockdown and increase in coronavirus tests in the country. India reported the highest single-day spike of 97570 coronavirus cases and 1201 death on 12th September. The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases crossed more than 46 Lakhs in India so far.
European countries have seen a resurgence of coronavirus cases in August. Some countries have restarted imposing lockdowns and restrictions. This is again bad for the economic growth of those countries.
The good news on the vaccine front is that the Orford University, and Astra Zeneca vaccine trials will resume from 13th September. The vaccine trials had to stop last week due to some serious ailments of a UK candidate after taking the trails. The Indian share market will take the news positively next week.
Share Market Indices: Nifty and Bank Nifty trend
Nifty futures trade setup for next week
Primary Trend of Nifty futures next week: Mild Positive
Range-Bound Trend of Nifty futures: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 11600 whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 11370
If Nifty share price in futures Moves Above 11478 and sustain. Then you should Buy with 1st Target of 11498 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 11440 FOR the Target of 11498 – 11528- 11554- 11585
Suppose Nifty share price in futures Moves Below 11440 and sustain. Then you should Sell with 1st Target of 11422 during the day or week with a Stop Loss of 11478. FOR the Target of 11422- 11400- 11374-11348
Bank Nifty trend in futures for next week
Primary Trend of Bank Nifty future for next week: Mild Negative
Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty share price in future: All up Moves Initiates Profit Booking (Sale) @ 23150, whereas All Down Moves Initiates Short Covering (Buy) @ 22050
Bank Nifty share price in the future Moves Above 22640 and sustain. Then you should Buy with the 1st Target of 22755 during the day with a Stop Loss of 22400. FOR the Target of 22755 – 22840- 22970- 23170
If Bank Nifty shares price in the future Moves Below 22400 and sustained. Then you should Sell with the 1st Target of 22310 during the day with a Stop Loss of 22640. FOR the Target of 22310 – 22180- 22042 – 21840
Macro data
The domestic macro data for the next week are
| Macro Data Next Week | |
| 14th Sept | WPI Inflation |
| CPI Retail Inflation | |
| 18th Sept | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
FIIs and DIIs movement
In the month of September, so far FIIs and DIIs, both are the seller in the cash segment. On a monthly basis, FIIs sold Rs 412.76 crore while DIIs also sold Rs 3272.60 crores in the cash segment. So far in the last four months, FIIs bought in the cash market segment.
If we analyze the last week’s FIIs transactions, in the last two days FIIs bought more than Rs 2000 crore in the cash segment. If the trend continues then we can see some upward movement in the Indian share market next week.
Conclusions:
Indian share market trend will be range-bound in the coming week. We may see some volatility in the market on Monday and in the mid of the week. This is due to India’s WPI and CPI data to be released on Monday and the FOMC meeting’s outcome.
Traders can follow our daily share market live views and Nifty and Bank Nifty futures prediction
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