Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 Dec 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 11- 15 Dec 2023): Indian stock market indexes ended the week with significant gains, rising for the sixth consecutive week. The domestic markets gained with the support of FII inflow, positive global cues, and a decline in crude oil prices. The benchmarks ended at record high levels on Friday, as RBI kept the interest rates unchanged as widely expected and revised the GDP growth from 6.5% to 7% in the last monetary policy of 2023.
In the coming week, the global cues and inflation data will set the market direction. The US Federal Reserves, BoE, and ECB will announce their last monetary of the year 2023. The domestic and US inflation data will remain in focus. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 Dec 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction Next Week
On Friday, the Nifty index closed at a record high after hitting 21000 landmarks during the intraday session. The index witnessed some volatility but regained strength in the second half to end on a positive note. A decisive breach above 21000 levels is required to maintain the uptrend.
The Nifty index closing above the 21000 level can expect higher targets of 21800-21900 levels in the coming days with near-term support lying near the 20550 zone. During the week, the Nifty could trade in the range of 20600 -21400 levels.
Simultaneously, the Bank Nifty also recorded a new high scaling 47300 levels on Friday with bias maintained strong. Most frontline banking stocks are well poised for a further upward move.
One can anticipate a further rise in the Bank Nifty index in the coming days with the 46300 zone as the support zone visible from current levels. Weekly basis, the Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 46200–48600 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
On the economic front, India’s IIP grew at 5.8% in September lower than the 10.3% reported in August. Indian stock markets will have October’s IIP data next week on Tuesday. The Industrial production data is likely to come higher in October as the Eight Core sectors data showed a jump of 12.1% in October from the revised data of 9.2% in September, on 30th November. The Eight Core Industries comprise 40.27% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
On the other hand, the country’s consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation is likely to come higher above RBI’s tolerance upper band of 6% in November, from 4.7% in October. A sharp reversal could be seen due to higher food and vegetable prices, while core inflation excluding food and energy is likely to remain stable. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the stock market outlook next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 December 2023 | Industrial Production IIP Oct |
| 12 December 2023 | CPI Inflation November |
| 14 December 2023 | WPI Inflation November |
| 15 December 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp |
| 15 December 2023 | Bank Loan and Deposit Growth |
| 15 December 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets closed mixed during the week. Global traders were focused mainly on services PMI activity data and Job reports from the US. The US and European stock market sentiments were positive as investors expect an early interest rate cut by the central bank next year.
Meanwhile, the sentiments were mixed in Asia-specific, China’s stock markets declined as Moody’s cut its outlook for China’s government bonds to “negative” from “stable. Japan’s Nikkei also ended lower as Q3 GDP contracted more than it was estimated earlier. Indian and Australian markets gained during the week as the central bank kept the key interest rates unchanged, while Hang Seng and South Korea’s markets ended in the red
Also read, Global Stock Market Snapshot: US and European Markets Rise, Asian Indexes Mixed
Next week global markets will focus on the major central banks’ monetary policy updates. The US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank will announce their key interest rate decision next week. The Industrial Production data from several countries including the UK, Japan, China, and the US will be released in the coming week.
The retail sales data from China and the US, and flash manufacturing and services PMI data for December from several countries will also remain in focus. The other key global macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global markets are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 12 December 2023 | PPI Nov. | Japan |
| 12 December 2023 | Unemployment Rate Oct | GB |
| 12 December 2023 | Zew Economic Sentiments Dec | EA |
| 12 December 2023 | CPI & Core Inflation Nov | US |
| 13 December 2023 | Tankan Manufacturing Index Q4 | Japan |
| 13 December 2023 | GDP-3 month Avg Oct | GB |
| 13 December 2023 | Goods Trade Balance Oct | GB |
| 13 December 2023 | Industrial Production Oct | GB |
| 13 December 2023 | Industrial Production Oct | EA |
| 13 December 2023 | PPI & Core PPI Nov | US |
| 13 December 2023 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | US |
| 14 December 2023 | Industrial Production Oct | Japan |
| 14 December 2023 | BoE Interest Rate Decision | GB |
| 14 December 2023 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 14 December 2023 | Retail Sales Nov | US |
| 14 December 2023 | Export-Import Nov | US |
| 14 December 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 15 December 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing Flash | Japan |
| 15 December 2023 | House Price Index Nov | China |
| 15 December 2023 | Industrial Profit Nov | China |
| 15 December 2023 | Retail Sales Nov | China |
| 15 December 2023 | Unemployment Rate Nov | China |
| 15 December 2023 | HCOB PMI Flash Dec | EA |
| 15 December 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS PMI Flash Dec | GB |
| 15 December 2023 | Balalnce of Trade Oct | EA |
| 15 December 2023 | Industrial Production Nov | US |
| 15 December 2023 | S&P Global PMI Flash Dec | US |
| 15 December 2023 | PBoC 1-year MLF Announcement | China |
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy
Next week, the US Federal Reserve, the UK’s Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) are gearing up for their last monetary policy announcements of the year 2023. The central banks are expected to leave their key policy rates unchanged but the commentary will be important for its guidance looking at and shaping the months ahead.
All eyes will be on the Fed officials about their future actions and guidance. When the interest rate cut will start? As inflation is declining, the Fed has a reason to cut rates early next year, according to market experts. Although it is widely expected that the US central bank will keep the key interest rate steady when they meet next week. And there is a slight possibility of future rate hikes if inflation fails to subside to a 2% annual rate in the coming months.
The top officials at both the ECB and the Fed have shown they are now considering interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has echoed several times that it is far too early for the BOE to think about cutting interest rates. Investors are now pricing the BOE to cut interest rates in May or June next year after eliminating inflation pressure, while the Fed and ECB may start in early 2024.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices rallied on Friday due to better-than-expected US job reports but that was not enough to prevent the seventh consecutive week of losses. Both the crude oil benchmarks ended lower by about 4% during the week due to fear of global oversupply of crude oil.
Traders are concerned about Chinese demand which is slowing into Q4, the latest OPEC+ meeting where the decision of production cut failed to impress the oil market, and non-OPEC supply is continuing to grow. As Guyana started its third FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) produced crude oil and gas at sea this month.
The recent corrections in crude oil prices can be attributed to the factors mentioned above, with both WTI and Brent experiencing declines to their lowest levels since June—falling below $69 and $74 per barrel, respectively. The falling or steady crude oil prices have proven advantageous for the Indian economy, providing support to domestic markets.
Note:-With Upstox Options Strategy Builder, you can create an option strategy. You can also try the ready-made options strategy Free at Upstox. Click here to Open a Free Trading and Demat Account and get a lifetime Demat AMC Free and Rs 20 flat Brokerage
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in equity cash segments, they purchased shares worth Rs 10593.19 crore during the week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) also continued their buying spree, and they also bought shares worth Rs 4353.55 crore during the week.
Traders should keep a close eye on FII and DII activity in the coming week. As mentioned earlier, the continuous FIIs inflow in the Indian equity cash segment will help the benchmarks to touch new highs in the coming week.
Conclusion
Indian stock market rallied and the key indices closed at record highs on Friday. The global sentiments are also favorable and we expect the positive momentum will continue in the domestic markets with some volatility in the upcoming week. Stay tuned to our insightful Stock Market Prediction for next week. Investors can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
If you like the post “Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 Dec 2023)” please share it with the others.
You may also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday, 11 December 2023
Options Trading Books: Your Ultimate 2023 Guide to Winning Big
Happy Investing!!
Editor’s Desk
