Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 July 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 July 2022): The Indian stock markets registered gains for three consecutive weeks. The indexes gained nearly 3 percent for the week ended 8 July. The markets gained mainly due to positive global cues, a sharp fall in crude oil prices, and a decline in FII’s selling pressure. However, the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar remained a concern for investors during the week.
The domestic equity market trend is positive at this moment, but it may change in the coming week as there are lots of uncertainties. Inflation data for the month of June and crude oil will remain the focus of the markets. The key factors that are likely to influence the stock market prediction next week are given below
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11 to 15 July 2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty trend and prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16700 to 15800 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Positive with cautious bias.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 36500 to 33800. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Positive with a cautious bias.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
On Friday, the RBI data showed that the country’s forex reserve fell by $5.009 billion to $588.314 for the week ended July 1, the lowest since April last year. In the coming week, investors need to remain cautious as inflation data is set to release for the month of June.
According to RBI Governor Saktikanta Das, the country’s inflation will ease gradually in the second half of the FY2022-23, till October we may see a further rise in inflation. The other domestic economic data that can influence the Indian stock markets next week are given below
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12-July- 2022 | Industrial Production |
| 12-July- 2022 | CPI Inflation Rate |
| 14-July- 2022 | WPI Inflation Rate |
| 15-July- 2022 | Deposit/Loan Growth |
| 15-July- 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
| 15-July- 2022 | Export & Import Final June |
Q1 FY23 Earnings
The Q1 FY23 earnings of Indian corporates have just kicked off. On Friday, post-market hours the IT major TCS announced its Q1FY23 earnings, its profit and attrition levels missed the street estimates due to higher expenses. On Monday, markets will react to the TCS Q1 reports first. In the coming week, HCL Tech is the only Nifty50 company that will announce its Q1FY23 earnings next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global market indexes mostly rallied in the first week of July. The US, European, and Japanese indexes registered a gain while China’s Shanghai fell during the week ended 8 July. As the data released on Saturday, China’s inflation rate elevated in June. On Monday Asian markets will first react to China’s high inflation data.
In the coming week, the US CPI inflation and quarterly earnings will drive the markets. Fed’s interest rate hike decision at July end will also depend on the CPI numbers. So the global markets will remain cautious and volatile in the next week. The other economic data for the global markets are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 11-July -2022 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor June | GB |
| 11-July -2022 | PPI June | Japan |
| 13-July -2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/ Import June | China |
| 13-July -2022 | GDP MoM May | GB |
| 13-July -2022 | Industrial Production YoY May | GB |
| 13-July -2022 | Balance of trade May | GB |
| 13-July -2022 | Inflation Rate June | US |
| 14-July -2022 | Industrial Production YoY May Final | Japan |
| 14-July -2022 | PPI June | US |
| 14-July -2022 | Jobless Claim | US |
| 15-July -2022 | Industrial Production June | China |
| 15-July -2022 | GDP Growth Rate June | China |
| 15-July -2022 | Retail Sales, | China |
| 15-July -2022 | Unemployment Rate | China |
| 15-July -2022 | Retail sales for June | US |
| 15-July -2022 | Export and Import data June | US |
| 15-July -2022 | Industrial Production | US |
Crude Oil Price
The crude oil prices have fallen sharply in the last week. Brent crude price hit below $100 per barrel due to the fear of recession. If a recession comes the commodities will plunge more. The Citi group has forecasted that crude oil will hit $65 per barrel by the year-end and $45 per barrel in 2023. As India is the second-largest oil-importing country, falling crude prices can reduce inflation and would be favorable for the Indian economy.
Weakness in Indian Rupee
Last week the global brokerage firm Nomura said that the record-high trade deficits should remain the norm for India now. Nomura further said that it expects the widening of the current account deficit to an elevated 3.3 percent of GDP in FY23 from 1.2 percent in FY22. Amid multiple headwinds, it expects the Indian Rupee to weak further and could hit 82 against the US dollar. The weakness in the rupee is negative for the Indian markets, traders should closely watch.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell in the Indian equity markets, but the selling momentum has declined last week. During the week, FIIs sold only Rs 2218.38 crore while DIIs bought Rs 3910.33 crore in the equity markets cash segment. So far in the month of July, FIIs sold 4543.14 crores while DIIs bought more than FIIs selling figure of Rs 5221.04
It has been noticed that, from the last week of June, FIIs selling has declined drastically. This can be interpreted as the early signs of selling exhaustion as per the market analyst. Investors need to watch closely the FIIs data to see whether this trend sustains.
Monsoon Updates
Monsoon has arrived in India, but rains in several states including food producers UP and West Bengal are still short of normal levels. The recent pickup in monsoon rains has accelerated the sowing of Kharif crops. The latest government data showed that the area sown with paddy and other summer crops is still facing a shortfall of rains.
As per the data, the deficiency was 3% in northwest India and 7% in central India. But the shortfall has reduced in this region in the last week and the situation is expected to improve in the coming week. Investors should closely monitor the monsoon updates as the good progress in the monsoon can boost the market sentiments, whereas a heavy shower in the short span can damage, may cause flood and loss in economy.
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