Stock Market Prediction Next Week (11- 15 March 2024): Indian stock markets ended with modest gains for the fourth straight week ending Thursday, 7 March 2024. Sensex and Nifty closed at record-high levels, gaining 0.42% and 0.47%, respectively. The market sentiments were upbeat due to the FII inflow. The positive global cues due to optimism about interest rate cuts in the US and Europe, likely in June, and encouraging economic data from China supported the local markets for the week.
In the upcoming week, the domestic and global macroeconomic data will remain in focus, specifically the inflation data from India and the US. The global cues, FIIs and DII inflows, Crude oil prices, and rupee movement against the dollar will be closely monitored and likely to drive the markets next week. The other key factors, that are likely to influence the domestic market trends are given below.
Stock Market Prediction for Next Week (11 – 15 March 2024)
Stock Market Prediction: Nifty & Bank Nifty
The Nifty index hit a fresh record high of 22525.40 level during the intraday session on Thursday, with Tata’s stocks leading the front-line indexes and supporting the key indexes to touch the peak level.
Overall, the Nifty index is looking strong. We expect the Nifty index to continue the momentum, reaching new highs at 22800-23000 levels. In the coming week, the Nifty index will have support at 22000 and resistance at 23000
The Bank Nifty which has already shown strength, is gradually on the rise and currently hovering near the 48000 zone with a positive bias maintained. The frontline banking stocks like HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, and IndusInd Bank looking good for the near term future according to Prabhudas Lilladher.
With the indices reaching their peak levels, we cannot rule out some consolidation. The trend continues strong, and we expect further rises in the coming days. The Bank Nifty will have a weekly range of 46500 – 49000.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Economic Data
In the upcoming week, markets will focus mainly on Inflation, as India’s consumer price index (CPI) data is set to release on Tuesday. India’s CPI-based inflation is likely to ease slightly to 5.2% in February from 5.10% in January, due to moderating food prices, according to a Reuters poll of 42 economists.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data will be released on the same day on Tuesday. The Industrial Production data unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in December 2023 from 2.4% in November.
The month-on-month performance in IIP data is likely to improve further in January, as the majority of the available high-frequency indicators recorded an improvement relative to December. Based on this, ICRA estimated a modest rise in the IIP growth to 4-6% in January 2024.
We anticipate the domestic markets will react positively to both the economic data on Wednesday. The other economic data that are likely to impact the markets in the upcoming week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 11 March 2024 | Passenger Vehicle Sales Feb |
| 12 March 2024 | Industrial Production Jan |
| 12 March 2024 | CPI Inflation Feb |
| 14 March 2024 | WPI Inflation Feb |
| 15 March 2024 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
| 15 March 2024 | Trade Data Export/Import Feb |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The Week That Was
The global stock market indexes ended mixed for the week ended on March 8. The key indices in US markets closed lower for the week. The US Fed’s Chair Powell’s hint of an interest rate cut soon in his testimony before Congress lifted the investor’s mood in the middle of the week. Meanwhile, the mixed signal from the monthly jobs report on Friday dragged down the indices and ended in the red.
European stock market indexes closed mostly higher on optimism of a rate cut in June, after the ECB policy meeting. The ECB reduced the inflation forecast and kept the interest rate steady in its policy meeting on Thursday. This has fueled hope of interest rate cuts in June.
China’s stock markets ended higher as the government’s recent measures lifted the investors’ confidence. The sentiments were also boosted as Beijing set the economic growth target of 5% this year at the weeklong National People’s Conference. Hang Seng and Japan’s stock markets closed lower due to profit booking at higher levels.
You can also read US Markets on 8 March: Dow & Nasdaq End Lower After Mixed Jobs Report
Next Week Outlook
In the upcoming week, traders will focus on the US inflation data which is set to release on Tuesday, 12 March. As per economist’s expectations, the CPI rate in February is likely to tick higher by 0.4% growth on a MoM basis, from 0.3% growth in January, with the annual growth rate may remain steady at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Core inflation data is likely to come slightly lower according to FactSet. The mixed US inflation data can create some volatility in the US markets next week.
In Europe, the optimism of interest rate cut in June is likely to support markets next week. Traders will be closely monitoring the UK’s GDP growth rate and Industrial production data.
In Asian markets, China’s CPI inflation rose by 0.7 percent in February YoY and rose 1% MoM basis, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday. This indicates rising demand in the Chinese economy, and the Asian markets are likely to react positively on Monday. However, Japan’s GDP growth data on Monday and China’s House Price Index data on Friday will influence the Asian markets next week.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 11 March 2024 | Q4 GDP Growth Rate Final | Japan |
| 11 March 2024 | National People’s Congress | China |
| 12 March 2024 | PPI Feb | Japan |
| 12 March 2024 | NAB Business Confidence Feb | AU |
| 12 March 2024 | Unemployment Rate Jan | GB |
| 12 March 2024 | CPI & Core Inflation Feb | US |
| 13 March 2024 | GDP 3 Month Avrage Jan | GB |
| 13 March 2024 | Goods Trade Balance Jan | GB |
| 13 March 2024 | Industrial Production Jan | GB |
| 13 March 2024 | Manufacturing Production Jan | GB |
| 13 March 2024 | Industrial Production Jan | EA |
| 14 March 2024 | PPI & Core PPI Feb | US |
| 14 March 2024 | Retail Sales Feb | US |
| 14 March 2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 15 March 2024 | House Price Index Feb | China |
| 15 March 2024 | Export & Import Price Feb | US |
| 15 March 2024 | Industrial Production Feb | US |
| 15 March 2024 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments March | US |
| 15 March 2024 | PBoC 1 Year MLF Announcement | China |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices closed lower on Friday, ending the week on a negative note, as concerns about oversupply dented the oil prices. The sentiments were downbeat as the US monthly job report failed to influence expectations on a rate cut in June. In the week, the US-based WTI crude oil prices fell 2.65%, while the London-based Brent crude was down 1.76%.
Now all eyes will be on US inflation data, the optimism of rate cuts in the US and Europe would increase the demand for crude oil. Similarly, rising demand in China after Saturday’s inflation data could be positive for the oil markets next week. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the upcoming week, as higher crude prices can dent the domestic equity market sentiments.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) were the net buyers in the last week, they bought shares worth Rs 10081.08 crore in the Indian equity cash segment. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and acquired shares worth Rs 10129.16 crore during the week. FIIs were the net buyers in three out of four trading sessions during the holiday-shortened week, while DIIs bought shares in all four sessions.
FIIs started the March series with short positions, after selling two consecutive sessions, they covered their shorts and added longs. They were the net buyers in the last three consecutive sessions and invested aggressively on Thursday after US Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed an interest rate cut is coming soon which pushed the US Treasury yields lower.
Traders should keep a close eye on the FIIs and DIIs activity in the upcoming week, as the FII’s buying spree could support the domestic markets to reach a new high.
Conclusion
To summarise the stock market prediction for next week, the Indian stock markets closed on a positive note last week, while the global market sentiments also remained mixed during the week. The major indexes in the global markets are trading at a record-high level on optimism about interest rate cuts, strong economic data, and optimistic quarterly earnings.
In the upcoming week, we expect Indian stock markets to maintain their positive momentum, with market direction influenced by inflation data. Traders can follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 a.m. IST for insights into the Stock Market Outlook and market direction.
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