Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12- 16 June 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12- 16 June 2023): Indian stock markets ended the week marginally higher. The equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty gained 0.13 percent and 0.16 percent respectively. The domestic markets gained three out of five trading sessions during the week. The sentiment was positive due to Institutional buying, positive global cues, expansion in service activity, and the outcome of RBI policy in line with market expectations. However, the upside was capped due to a delay in the monsoon.
In the coming week, the markets will remain volatile due to several crucial events lined up on the global and domestic front. The major central banks- US Fed, ECB, and BoJ monetary policy announcements will be in focus next week. The macroeconomic data both global as well as domestic front, progress in monsoon, and FIIs inflow will set the market direction next week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (12-16 June 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
On Friday, the Nifty index witnessed another day of correction with IT, FMCG, PSU Banks, and Auto stocks among the major counters witnessing profit booking dragging the index to close near the 18550 zone. It may be, the index has taken a pause or a step back before arriving at the landmark of the previous peak zone.
The 18450 level is maintained as the crucial support zone for the Nifty index from where the pullback recovery can be anticipated. The support for the week in the Nifty index is seen at 18200 levels while the resistance is seen at 18900 levels.
The Bank Nifty once again traded sideways and hovered near the 44000 zone on Friday and with mixed bias witnessed among the frontline banking stocks. Some conviction needs to be established before we confirm a directional move of the Bank Nifty index.
The Bank Nifty crucial support zone lies near the 43700 level whereas the 44500 zone remains as the resistance barrier which needs a decisive breakout. On a weekly basis, the Bank Nifty index could trade in the range of 42900-45200 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
According to the RBI data showed on Friday, India’s foreign exchange reserves jumped $5.2929 billion for the week ended June 2. On Monday, the markets will react positively as the reserves jumped after declining two previous weeks.
On Monday, CPI inflation for May and IIP data for April will be released during post-market hours. RBI in its last Monetary policy lowered its inflation forecast for the financial year 2023-24 to 5.1 percent from an earlier estimate of 5.2 percent.
According to a Reuters poll and economist’s expectations, India’s inflation is likely to drop between 4-4.3% in May from 4.7% recorded in April. The IIP data for April may remain flat based on the Core sector’s data. The Indian markets are likely to remain cautious ahead of the economic data on Monday.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 June 2023 | Industrial Production April |
| 12 June 2023 | Manufacturing production |
| 12 June 2023 | CPI Inflation May |
| 14 June 2023 | WPI Inflation May |
| 15 June 2023 | Balance of Trade Export & Import |
| 16 June 2023 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth June |
| 16 June 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Progress in Monsoon
The Southwest monsoon marks the beginning of the four-month-long (June-September) monsoon season on Thursday 8th June, after a delay of 7 days. The delay in monsoon has raised concerns among farmers and residents relying on monsoon rain for their livelihoods.
The monsoon season, which runs from June to September every year, contributes around 75% of the country’s annual rainfall and irrigates over half of its agricultural land. A delay in the monsoon could affect the timely sowing of crops in various parts of the country. The news related to the monsoon advancing in the other parts of the country could support the domestic equity markets next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes mostly closed higher during the week. The global market sentiments were positive on expectations that the US Fed is likely to pause interest rate hike in next week’s policy. European market closed lower due to weak economic data while China gained on stimulus hope.
In the coming week, global markets will focus mainly on the Central Bank’s- US Fed, ECB, and BoJ interest rate decision. The macroeconomic data like the US inflation rate, China’s retail sales and industrial production, and Inflation data from Europe will also remain in focus. The other key macroeconomic data that are going to be released in the coming week are given below.
Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 12 June 2023 | PPI May | Japan |
| 13 June 2023 | Unemployment Rate April | GB |
| 13 June 2023 | Core Inflation May | US |
| 13 June 2023 | CPI Inflation May | US |
| 14 June 2023 | GDP MoM April | GB |
| 14 June 2023 | Industrial Production April | GB |
| 14 June 2023 | Balance of Trade April | GB |
| 14 June 2023 | Industrial Production April | EA |
| 14 June 2023 | PPI May | US |
| 14 June 2023 | Core PPI May | US |
| 14 June 2023 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | US |
| 15 June 2023 | Balance of trade Export& Import May | Japan |
| 15 June 2023 | House price Index May | China |
| 15 June 2023 | Industrial ProductionMay | China |
| 15 June 2023 | Retail Sales May | China |
| 15 June 2023 | Unemployment Rate May | China |
| 15 June 2023 | Balance of Trade April | EA |
| 15 June 2023 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 15 June 2023 | Retail Sales May | US |
| 15 June 2023 | Export and Import May | US |
| 15 June 2023 | Initial jobless claim | US |
| 15 June 2023 | Industrial Production May | US |
| 16 June 2023 | Boj Interest Rate Decision | Japan |
| 16 June 2023 | CPI Inflation May | EA |
| 16 June 2023 | Core Inflation May | EA |
| 16 June 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments/Expectations | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Last Sunday, Saudi Arabia surprised the market with a production cut at the world’s biggest oil producers OPEC+ meeting. But the rally in oil prices could not sustain beyond a day or two. The crude oil price fell sharply after a Middle East website reported on Thursday that the Islamic Republic legally exports some of its sanctioned oil, increasing global supply, which was later denied by the White House on Friday.
However, the disappointing Chinese data added to doubts about the demand for crude oil. The uncertainty about the US Fed rate hikes in the next week also hit the oil prices. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices next week as it may remain volatile. On a weekly basis, WTI crude oil was down by 2.2% while Brent crude declined by 1.8%
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their buying spree and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also turned into net buyers during the week. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 970.73 crore while DIIs purchased Rs 1939.76 crore shares for the week.
In the last seven trading sessions in June, FIIs were net buyers in three trading sessions with a total investment of Rs 240.78 crore. DIIs bought shares worth Rs 3010.55 crore in five out of seven trading sessions in June. Traders should follow FIIs and DIIs trading activity closely in the next week to gauge the market direction.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market trend is slightly negative. Next week markets are likely to remain highly volatile due to the crucial global events mentioned above. Traders should remain cautious and trade with proper hedging and stop losses. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
If you like the post “Stock Market Prediction Next Week ( 12-16 June 2023)” please share it with the others.
You may also like to read, Global Stock Market – Weekly (5-9 June) News and Analysis
Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 12 June 2023
Happy Investing!!
Editor’s Desk
