Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 18 Aug 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 18 Aug 2023): Indian stock markets extended losses for three weeks in a row. The equity benchmarks ended with marginal losses on a weekly basis, as the banking stocks fell sharply after the RBI policy outcome. The market sentiments were also hit due to weak global cues and persistent selling pressure from foreign investors.
The coming week will be a truncated one, as the domestic markets will remain closed on 15 August on account of the Independence Day Holiday. Indian markets will be focusing on domestic WPI and CPI inflation data, which are due on Monday.
The macroeconomic data from the global markets, FIIs activity, and Crude oil prices will also remain in focus next week. The other key factors likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 18 Aug 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
The Nifty index for the holiday-shortened week would have the crucial support of 19300 levels. Nifty needs to be sustained above this level, failing which can slide to the next major support zone of 18800 levels.
On the upside, we have 19600 levels as the near-term resistance barrier for the Nifty index. If Nifty breaches this level then we can anticipate for further up move. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in a range of 19300- 19550 levels.
Bank Nifty index during the week has been resisting near the 45000 level. Since the last two sessions, Bank Nifty witnessed a heavy profit booking, breaching below the important 50EMA level of the 44600 zone, this indicates further weakness.
Bank Nifty should be trading with a cautious approach, as the downside movement is expected till the 43300 zone, which is the next major support for the Bank Nifty index.
At the same time, in order to improve the bias, the Bank Nifty index needs to cross above the important zone of 44400 levels. Above this level, the index can further give an upside movement in the coming days. On a weekly basis, Bank Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 43800-44600 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
The official data released on Friday after market hours showed that India’s Industrial Production (IIP) readings dipped by 3.7% in June, down from 5.2% recorded in May 2023. The latest data released by RBI on Friday showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $2.41 billion to $601.453 billion for the week ending Aug 4. Both the weekend data will influence the markets negatively on Monday.
On Monday, during market hours the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation will be announced and it is expected to remain in the deflationary zone for the fourth consecutive month even after a spike in vegetable prices. While concern is post-market Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation reading.
As per the economist poll organized by various private agencies, CPI inflation is likely to hit six month high at 6.5%, which will increase sharply higher due to a rise in vegetable and food prices. Traders should remain cautious on Monday ahead of the inflation data.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 14 August 2023 | WPI Inflation July |
| 14 August 2023 | CPI Inflation July |
| 15 August 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp |
| 18 August 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserves |
1st Quarter Earnings
We are in the last leg of the 1st quarter of corporate earnings. In the coming week, only two Nifty50 companies, BPCL and ITC will release their 1st quarterly earnings on Monday. Traders having a position in these two stocks should remain cautious.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes closed mixed this week. The global markets were focused mainly on inflation data from China and US. China slips into deflation, as the CPI inflation reading contracted by 0.3% in July. The 40% windfall tax by the Italian government dragged the financial stocks in Europe, though it was clarified later and the next day indexes bounced back.
Moody’s downgraded 10 US regional banks’ credit ratings hit the US markets during the week. However, the downside was capped, after US CPI inflation came lower than expected on Thursday. The optimism in retail inflation readings got faded and renewed fear of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening emerged after the release of higher-than-expected producer price index data on Friday.
The earnings season in the US will mostly conclude with big retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target quarterly results next week. The FOMC minutes, Retail Sales for July, Consumer Spending, and House Starts from the US are likely to influence the global markets.
The GDP growth rate from Japan and Eurozone and inflation reading from UK, Japan, and Eurozone will also remain the focus next week. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to influence the global stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 14 August 2023 | Consumer Inflation Expectation July | US |
| 15 August 2023 | GDP Growth Rate- Q2 | Japan |
| 15 August 2023 | Industrial Production – July | China |
| 15 August 2023 | Retail Sales-July | China |
| 15 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate-July | China |
| 15 August 2023 | Fixed Asset Investment July | China |
| 15 August 2023 | Industrial Production June | Japan |
| 15 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate-June | GB |
| 15 August 2023 | Zew Economic Sentiments- Aug | EA |
| 15 August 2023 | Retail Sales -July | US |
| 15 August 2023 | Import & Export Prices July | US |
| 16 August 2023 | House Price Index-July | China |
| 16 August 2023 | Retail Inflation Rate & Core Inflation July | GB |
| 16 August 2023 | PPI & Core PPI July | GB |
| 16 August 2023 | Retail Price Index- July | GB |
| 16 August 2023 | Industrial Production June | EA |
| 16 August 2023 | Employment Change Q2 | EA |
| 16 August 2023 | GDP Growth Rate- Q2 | EA |
| 16 August 2023 | Industrial Production Jul | US |
| 16 August 2023 | House Starts July | US |
| 16 August 2023 | FOMC Minutes | US |
| 17 August 2023 | Balance of Trade – Exp/Imp | Japan |
| 17 August 2023 | Balance of Trade-June | EA |
| 17 August 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 18 August 2023 | Inflation Rate July | Japan |
| 18 August 2023 | Core Inflation Rate July | Japan |
| 18 August 2023 | Retail Sales -July | GB |
| 18 August 2023 | Inflation & Core Inflation Rate July | EA |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices gained seven consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since June 2022. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia reducing the export of oil. On a weekly basis, the US WTI crude gained slightly higher by 0.50 percent while London-based Brent was up by 0.70 percent
On Friday, crude oil closed higher as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the global oil demand hit a record high of 103 million barrels per day in June and could see another peak in August.
Traders should keep a close eye on crude oil prices as both the benchmark already rose around 20% in two months. Further hikes in crude oil prices could dampen the domestic market sentiments, as India is the second largest importer of crude oil.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets. They have sold shares in three out of five trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 4702.06 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week, they bought shares worth Rs 2224.3 crore, around 50% less than the FIIs selling
In the month of August, FIIs were net sellers and offloaded shares worth Rs 7546.53 crore. If the selling spree continues in the coming week we may see further downfall in the Indian markets. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs activity in the coming week to know the market direction.
Conclusion
Indian equity markets turned negative after the RBI monetary policy. Going ahead, markets are likely to remain under pressure in the coming holiday-shortened week. Traders need to closely monitor the above-mentioned factors, which can influence the stock market prediction next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 14 Aug 2023
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