Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14 -18 Nov 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14 -18 Nov 2022): Indian stock markets ended higher for the fourth consecutive week. The Indian markets become positive after a strong rally on the final day of the week, amid positive global cues. Strong cues from Wall Street after softer-than-expected CPI inflation reading for the month of October raised hope among investors for less aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in December.
In the coming week, on Monday markets will first react to the positive IIP data that was reported after the market hours last Friday. The markets will focus on economic data and global cues next week. The CPI and WPI inflation will be released on the same day, 14 November. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction for the next week are given below
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 18 Nov2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
On Friday, Nifty made a gap-up opening, amid positive global cues. Nifty opened above multiple breakout levels. The Nifty index has further strengthened the trend and is anticipated to retest the previous peak of 18604.45 in the coming days. For the coming week, the support is seen at 18300-18000 while the resistance is at 18600-18700
Bank Nifty, mentioned in our last week’s report witnessed a strong movement on Friday on the back of a rally in HDFC Bank and is anticipated to carry on the momentum for the further up move of 43500 levels. The overall bias and sentiment have improved and are anticipated to make new levels soon. For the coming week Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 43500 – 41000
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Quarterly Earnings
Almost all Nifty 50 companies have announced their quarterly earnings so far. The higher commodity prices and high inflation have impacted the overall profitability of some Nifty companies in the Sept end quarter. In the second quarterly earnings, the IT and Banking sectors reported growth while Auto, Consumer, Oil &Gas reported mixed results for the quarter.
Next week only ONGC and Grasim will release their 2nd quarterly earnings on 14th November. Traders having positions in these two companies need to remain cautious.
Domestic Economic Data
The domestic economic data will drive the markets next week. Traders should remain cautious on Monday as the WPI number will be released during market hours and CPI inflation will be announced later in the day. On Saturday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said India’s CPI inflation will be below 7 percent in October. Retail inflation increased to 7.4% in September from 7% in August due to higher food and energy cost.
The Reuters poll predicted, India’s retail inflation at 6.73% in October. The domestic markets will react positively if the inflation cools down and we could see a big rally if it cools more than the Reuters poll. The other key economic data expected during are week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 14 November 2022 | WPI Inflation |
| 14 November 2022 | CPI Inflation |
| 15 November 2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp |
| 18 November 2022 | Foreign Exchange reserve |
| 18 November 2022 | Deposit and Bank Loan growth |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The second key factor likely to drive the domestic equity markets is global cues. Last week US mid-term election and Inflation readings dominated the Indian equity markets and set the market direction. In the coming week too, important economic data like the Retail Sales, Unemployment rate, GDP data, and Industrial production of several countries will be focused on and set the global market direction.
Other than the economic data, US President Joe Biden’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on 14 November will remain focused, as several important topics will be discussed in the meeting. Traders should note down the below-mentioned schedule of global economic data for the next week.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 14 November 2022 | Industrial Production | EA |
| 15 November 2022 | GDP Growth QoQ Prel Q3 | Japan |
| 15 November 2022 | Industrial production Oct | China |
| 15 November 2022 | Retail Sales Oct | China |
| 15 November 2022 | Unemployment Rate Oct | China |
| 15 November 2022 | Industrial Production Sept | Japan |
| 15 November 2022 | Unemployment Rate Sept | GB |
| 15 November 2022 | Balance of trade SEP | EA |
| 15 November 2022 | Employment Change Q3 | EA |
| 15 November 2022 | GDP Growth rate Q3 | EA |
| 15 November 2022 | PPI MoM Oct | US |
| 16 November 2022 | House price Index YoY Oct | China |
| 16 November 2022 | Inflation rate Oct | GB |
| 16 November 2022 | Retail Price Index Oct | GB |
| 16 November 2022 | Retail Sales Oct | US |
| 16 November 2022 | Industrial production Oct | US |
| 17 November 2022 | Balance Of trade Oct | Japan |
| 17 November 2022 | Inflation rate Oct | EA |
| 17 November 2022 | Housing Starts | GB |
| 17 November 2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 18 November 2022 | Inflation Rate Oct | Japan |
| 18 November 2022 | Retail Sales Oct | GB |
| 18 November 2022 | Existing Home Sales | US |
Indian Rupee Movements against the US dollar
The Indian rupee appreciated by 62 paise and closed at 80.78 against the US dollar on Friday. Indian currency appreciated after the release of softer-than-expected US inflation data. The sustained FIIs inflow in the Indian equity markets also supported the local currency last week.
The Indian rupee registered its best weekly performance in the last four years. The rupee has erased 81-mark and ended at 80.7950 against the US dollar as per the interbank forex mark. The Indian currency appreciated 2% during the week that ended on 11 November. Traders should closely monitor the rupee movement next week as further appreciation in the Indian rupee against the US dollar and below 80-mark will be positive for the market.
Crude Oil Prices
After gaining two consecutive weeks, crude oil prices fell in the last week. The oil prices were volatile last week, reacting to the news from the world’s largest oil-importing country China regarding fresh covid cases and scraping the relaxation of Covid restrictions. However, at the end of the week, the decline in US inflation and some relaxation in China’s Zero-Covid policy boosted the oil prices.
On a weekly basis, the WTI crude oil price closed lower by 6.6% while Brent crude fell by 2.6%. The crude oil prices are likely to extend their Friday gain in the coming week. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil price next week, as Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel would be negative for the domestic markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers last week. They bought Rs 6329.63 crore worth of shares in the Indian equity markets cash segment during the week. On other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained as net sellers on a weekly basis. They sold Rs 2255.91 crore worth of shares during the holiday-shorten week.
The sustained buying by the FIIs in the Indian equity markets supported the domestic markets last week. After the release of US inflation data, the US dollar index and Treasury yields fell and also reduced the recession fear in the US. This is very positive for the domestic markets as we may see more FIIs inflow in the coming days.
Conclusion:
Indian markets closed near the day’s high last Friday. The global markets also closed on positive notes on the final day of the week. SGX Nifty closed near 18500 levels. Technically, markets are looking strong, and based on the above key factors we feel markets will remain positive next week.
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