Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14 – 17 March 2022)
Stock Market Prediction next week (14 – 17 March 2022): Indian equity markets snap 4-week losing streak and advanced more than 2 percent for the week ended 11 March. The domestic markets were highly volatile during the week due to the Russia-Ukraine war and strong performance by BJP and their allies in the assembly election results. Indian stock markets will be closed on 18 March due to the Holi festival.
In the coming truncated week, markets will focus on the development of the Russia-Ukraine war, the much-awaited FOMC meeting followed by the country’s inflation rate, BoJ, BoE interest rate decision, the other factors that can influence the markets are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (14- 17 March 2022)- The key factors to watch out
Russia- Ukraine War
In the coming week, the market will focus on the stabilization of commodity prices and diplomatic solutions for Russia-Ukraine Conflicts, as Russian President Punit has said he sees “certain positive shifts” in their talks with Ukraine negotiators in Turkey. Any positive development on this front can improve the Indian stock markets sentiments otherwise the market will remain choppy.
Meanwhile, Russian troops continue shelling Ukrainian cities killing civilians unable to escape. Fighting has intensified around Ukraine’s capital, while Russian forces launched multiple airstrikes on a military training ground outside Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, near Poland’s border.
Domestic Macroeconomic data
The Indian market will react to the positive IIP data released last Friday after the market hours. India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 1.3 percent in January from 0.07 percent in December. The local markets will also react to the Inflation data to be released on Monday, WPI during the market, and CPI after the markets hours. Below are the schedule of domestic macroeconomic data to be released in the coming week.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 14 March 2022 | WPI Inflation FEB |
| CPI Inflation FEB | |
| 15 March 2022 | Balance of Trade |
| Export/Import FEB | |
| 18 March 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Fed’s interest rate decision will be the main event in the coming week. Fed has already indicated to hike its interest rate by quarter basis points from zero in the March 2022 policy meeting. An aggressive rate hike by the Fed can be negative for the global market. Other than Fed’s meeting, markets are also expecting below weekly macroeconomic data and BoJ and BoE interest rate decisions in the coming week.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 15 March 22 | Industrial Production Jan-Feb | China |
| 15 March 22 | Retail Sales Jan-Feb | China |
| 15 March 22 | Unemployment Rate Jan-Feb | China |
| 15 March 22 | Unemployment Rate Jan | GB |
| 15 March 22 | PPI MoM FEB | US |
| 16 March 22 | Reuters Thankan Index March | Japan |
| 16 March 22 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp FEB | Japan |
| 16 March 22 | House Price Index FEB | China |
| 16 March 22 | Industrial Production JAN | Japan |
| 16 March 22 | Retail Sales FEB, Exp/Imp Feb | US |
| 16 March 22 | Fed Interest rate decision | US |
| 17 March 22 | BOE Interest rate decision | GB |
| 17 March 22 | Jobless Claims | US |
| 17 March 22 | Industrial Production | US |
| 18 March 22 | Inflation Rate | Japan |
| 18 March 22 | BoJ Interest rate deciosion | Japan |
| 18 March 22 | Existing Home sales FEB | US |
Crude Oil Price
The crude oil prices were highly volatile due to supply concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that have been levied against it concern the supply. The Brent crude May futures has touched $139 as high and $105.6 as low and closed at $112.42 during the week. Inventories in major oil-consuming developed countries including the US and other Western countries have been falling steadily.
India is the second-largest importer of crude oil, generally, any rise in international crude oil prices impacts the country’s current account deficit, inflation, and corporate profitability. This time the oil price impact is far less as compared to the past. And so Morgan Stanley in its latest note said that “the rise in oil price is a threat but not strong enough in the context of the policy environment.” Traders need to closely monitor the crude oil price, as volatility in crude price can also make the Indian stock market volatile.
Nifty & Bank Nifty prediction for next week
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16200 to 17100. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is mild negative with cautious bias.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 33300 to 36000. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is mild negative bias will remain cautious.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates.
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
On Saturday, India recorded 3,614 fresh single-day covid cases, its lowest since May 12, 2020. The active number of cases also dropped around 40K, according to the Health Ministry. The daily average cases for the last week was around 5K. India has administered more than 179 crore covid cases so far. Due to the decline in covid cases, India has now decided to resume international flights from March 27, it was suspended for more than 2 years due to covid.
Whereas, the resurgence of Covid19 cases was seen in China, Hong Kong. Mainland China reported more than 1500 fresh covid cases on Saturday. China has reimposed lockdowns and restrictions in several covid hit areas. Traders need to remain cautious on this front in the next week.
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold whereas the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the buyers in the cash segment for the week ended 11 March. FIIs sold Rs 24688.44 crores, while DIIs bought Rs 17729.12 crore in the cash market segment during the week.
FIIs continue to sell in the Indian stock markets for the last six months in a row, perhaps this is the longest monthly selling streak with heavy volume. Their net outflow in the past six months since October was more than 2 lakh crore, February 2022 being the highest FIIs outflow in six months period.
FIIs are continuously selling due to the impact of Covid 19 and fear of aggressive interest rate hike, the selling has become more intense in February as increasing margin pressure seen in corporate earnings because of the elevated commodity prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war
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