Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2- 6 Oct 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2- 6 Oct 2023): Indian stock markets closed lower for the second consecutive week ending on 29 September 2023. The domestic markets ended lower due to weak global cues, as the US Treasury yields hit a new high at 4.6%, the highest since 2007. The market sentiments were also dented due to rising crude oil prices and persistent selling by the FIIs in the equity cash segment.
The coming week will be a holiday-shortened week, as Indian stock markets will remain closed on Monday 2nd October, on account of Gandhi Jayanti. The RBI Monetary policy, global cues, and economic data from domestic as well as global markets will remain in focus and set market directions. The other factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below:
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (2-6 Oct 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
On Friday, the Nifty Index made a pullback recovery after the heavy erosion witnessed in the previous session from the 19500 zone to touch the 19720 levels during the intraday session. The index slightly improves the bias and eases out the panic sentiment to some extent.
Further Nifty index has crucial support near 19500, on the upside a decisive breach of above 19850 level, the index can improve the bias. On a weekly basis, Nifty index could trade in a range between 19200 to 20000
Bank Nifty index also witnessed a recovery on Friday but once again was not able to cross above the 44800 zone of the important 50EMA level and closed near the 44600 zone with some profit booking in the final hours.
The Bank Nifty index would have the major support zone of 43600 levels where it should sustain and witness some stability. In the coming week, Bank Nifty would trade in a range of 43400-45700 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic Macroeconomic Data
The domestic macroeconomic data will remain focused in the next week. On Friday, the data released by the government showed that the output of India’s eight core sectors grew by 12.1 percent on an annual basis in August. The output of India’s eight core sectors grew at 8.4% in July.
Separate data showed India’s fiscal deficit for the first five months of FY2023-24 stood at 6.43 lakh crore or 36 percent of annual estimates. The deficit widened from the 32.6% reported for the same period in the previous year. The weekly foreign exchange dips $ 2.34 crore to 590.7 bn, according to the RBI report.
Indian stock markets will react positively to the 14-month-high eight core data on Tuesday. The GST Collections, Manufacturing, and Services PMI data will also remain in focus in the coming week. The economic data that are scheduled to be released in the coming week are given below:
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 3 October 2023 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 5 October 2023 | S&P Global Services PMI |
| 6 October 2023 | RBI Monetary Policy |
| 6 October 2023 | Bank Loan & Deposit Growth |
| 6 October 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserves |
RBI Monetary Policy
The Reserve Bank Governor- headed the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for 4-6 October. The RBI is likely to to unchanged in the policy, as the CPI inflation rate is still above RBI’s upper band target of 6%. The CPI inflation reported in August was 6.83%.
Investors will be closely watching RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’s commentary after the interest rate decision outcome on 6th October, to know the policy stance, inflation, and growth outlook. Any hint related to an interest rate cut in the future will be positive for the markets.
Auto Sales Number
Auto stocks will remain in focus next week, as Auto companies will start announcing their monthly sales figure next week. The sales in auto companies are likely to scale new highs in September due to encouraging consumer demand in the ongoing festive season and a series of new models that have been launched by the auto companies to target the festive season. Investors having exposure to auto stocks should remain cautious next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week the global stock markets mostly ended lower due to fear of higher interest rates for a long period. The global markets remained subdued in the early week after Moody’s warning that the shutdown would be “credit negative” for the US sovereign. The rising crude oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a potential US government shutdown hit the market sentiments during the week.
However, the downside was limited, as flash data showed that the inflation rate eased in Europe more than expected in September. Japan’s Tokyo inflation and core Tokyo inflation eased in September. In the US the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August also came lower than expected.
In the coming week, the US government shutdown might happen if the leaders in Congress don’t agree to some special bills to give it more money to run the government post-September 30. The outcome will impact the global stock markets next week on Monday. Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Monday.
Other than the potential government shutdown, JOLT’s job opening data and unemployment rates, from the US will also drive the markets next week. Chinese stock markets will remain closed next week due to the “Golden Week Holiday”. The Manufacturing and Services PMI data from several countries will be reported in the coming week and will impact the global stock market.
The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market outlook are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 2 October 2023 | Tankan Large Manufacturer Index Q3 | Japan |
| 2 October 2023 | BoJ Summary of Opinions | Japan |
| 2 October 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Sept | Japan |
| 2 October 2023 | Nationwide Housing Price Sept | UK |
| 2 October 2023 | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Sept | EA |
| 2 October 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Sept | GB |
| 2 October 2023 | Unemployment Rate Aug | EA |
| 2 October 2023 | ISM & S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Sept | US |
| 2 October 2023 | Fed Chair Powell’s Speech | US |
| 3 October 2023 | JOLT’s Job Opening | Aug |
| 4 October 2023 | Jibun Bank Services PMI Sept | Japan |
| 4 October 2023 | HCOB Services PMI Sept | EA |
| 4 October 2023 | ECB President Lagarde’s speech | EA |
| 4 October 2023 | Retail Sales Aug | EA |
| 4 October 2023 | PPI Aug | EA |
| 4 October 2023 | S&P/CIPS Global Services PMI Sept | GB |
| 4 October 2023 | ISM & S&P Global Services PMI Sept | US |
| 4 October 2023 | ADP Employment Change Sept | US |
| 4 October 2023 | Factory Order Aug | US |
| 4 October 2023 | ECB President Lagarde’s speech | EA |
| 5 October 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Aug | US |
| 5 October 2023 | Weekly Jobless Claim | US |
| 6 October 2023 | Halifax Housing Price Index Sept | GB |
| 6 October 2023 | Non-Farm Payroll | US |
| 6 October 2023 | Unemployment Rate Sept | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices fell on the last day of September month but ended the week on a positive note. In addition to the extension of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the supply tightness in the US and the expectation of an increase in demand from China during the weeklong holiday lifted the crude oil prices during the week.
On a weekly basis, New York traded WTI crude gained 0.08 percent, while London traded Brent crude gained 0.3 percent. Both the benchmarks reported their second-best month for this year after July.
Meanwhile, analysts are expecting a potential reduction in voluntary supply cuts in next week’s OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the rest of OPEC+ members will meet again next week to review the impact of their production cuts on the market and what to do going forward. If there is any reduction in voluntary supply cuts, then we may see some correction in crude oil prices and this will impact positively in the stock markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity cash markets last week, and they sold consecutively for 10 weeks in a row. They were net sellers in all five trading sessions last week and offloaded shares worth Rs 8430.77 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 8143.28 crore, almost equal to what FIIs have sold during the week.
In the month of September, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) offloaded shares worth about Rs 26692.16 crore, while DIIs have invested Rs 20312.65 crore. The domestic market sentiments were hit, as FIIs are persistently selling the equity cash segment. FII selling spree likely to continue as long as US bond yields are in uptrend.
Traders should keep a close eye on FIIs and DIIs data in the coming week, as FII’s intense selling in the Indian equity cash markets will further hit the market sentiments.
Conclusion
Last Friday, Indian stock markets closed with significant gains despite profit booking witnessed in the last hour. The market sentiments lifted due to positive global cues. The coming week will be a truncated one, Indian stock markets will remain closed on Monday, 2nd October, on account of Gandhi Jayanti.
The domestic markets will resume again on Tuesday by following global cues. The markets are expected to remain volatile next week, as RBI Monetary Policy outcome and PMI data are scheduled. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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