Stock Market Prediction Next Week (20-24 Feb 2023)

February 18, 2023 admin

Stock Market Prediction Next Week (20-24 Feb 2023): Indian equity benchmarks ended with modest gains during the week. Investors were in concerns about rising inflation, surges in US bond yields, and the dollar index. However, falling crude oil prices, FIIs buying, and narrowed trade deficit due to a decline in imports faster rate than exports improved the domestic sentiments during the week.

In the coming week, markets will focus on monthly F&O expiry and Global cues. On the global front, FOMC minutes, Europe and Japan’s inflation rate, China’s Prime Loan rate, and US GDP growth will decide the market trends. The other key economic data that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week are below

Stock Market Prediction Next Week (20- 24 Feb 2023)

Feb Expiry- Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction

On Friday, the Nifty index once again witnessed profit booking from 18000 levels indicating a lower top formation on the daily chart. The Nifty index with the last two sessions of a bearish candle pattern has once again weakened the bias and sentiment. The index has got crucial and strong support at 17800 levels which if broken can turn matters further worse.

At the same time, a decisive breach of above the 18150 zone is necessary to overcome the weak sentiment and then we can expect a further up move in the Nifty index. On a weekly basis, we can expect the Nifty index to move between 17600- 18300 levels.

Bank Nifty witnessed profit-taking in the frontline banking counters for the second consecutive session and touched 40900 levels on Friday, with the trend showing weakness. A decisive breach below the 40800 level in Bank Nifty would further invite a downward trend with an intensified profit booking activity. In the coming week, on the spot level basis, Bank Nifty would trade in a range of 40000-42200.

You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1

GST Council Meeting

The 49th meeting of the GST Council was held on 18 February in the national capital chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. In the meeting, the entire amount of Rs 16,982 crore of GST compensation cess to states for June 2022 is to be cleared.

Decision on setting up GST Appellate Tribunal accepted with change in language. GST Council also decides to reduce GST on pencil sharpeners, certain tracking devices, and no GST on unpacked liquid jaggery. Taxation for pan masala accepted likely to be positive for the markets.

Macroeconomic data

According to the RBI’s latest data showed on Friday, India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $8.31 billion to $566.94 billion in the week ending on February 10. This is the biggest weekly drop in the country’s foreign exchange in the last 11 months. This may impact negatively the markets on Monday.

The last RBI meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. Traders should remain cautious, as it will reveal in details of the MPC six members’ discussion held before they take a call on the policy rate and policy stance to gauge the future path of RBI interest rate decision. Other than this, bank loan and deposit growth are expected on Friday.

Rupee vs Dollar Movement

On a weekly basis, the rupee declined by 24 paise against the US dollar and registered its fourth straight week of losses. The Indian rupee depreciated, as Dollar strengthened due to strong US economic data, which prompted the US Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer to tame inflation.

Experts feel that the Indian rupee to trade with a negative bias on a strong dollar and weak domestic markets in the near term. However, weak crude oil prices and fresh FII inflows, as seen in the last week, and if the trend continues then a sharp fall in the rupee may be prevented. Traders should keep a close eye on Rupee vs Dollar movements in the next week, as depreciation in the rupee can impact negatively the stock markets.

Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week

The global stock markets closed mixed last week. It impacted the domestic markets in absence of any positive trigger on the domestic front. The combination of strong US economic data and rising inflation prompted an aggressive interest rate hike by the US Fed in March.

The escalation of geopolitical tension between the US and China in the spy balloon saga also worried investors that this may hamper faster economic growth in China. However, the positive quarterly earnings in Europe shrug off the worries of the ECB’s hawkish comments.

In the coming week, the global markets will focus on FOMC minutes, US GDP, China’s Prime Loan rate, and Europe and Japan’s inflation rate for January. The other key global macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below

Important Global Macro Data Next Week
20 February 2023	Loan Prime Rate 1-5 yrs	China
20 February 2023	Consumer Confidence Flash Feb	EA
21 February 2023	Jibun Bank PMI Flash Feb	Japan
21 February 2023	S&P Global PMI Flash	EA
21 February 2023	S&P Global/ CIPS PMI Feb Flash	GB
21 February 2023	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	EA
21 February 2023	S&P Global PMI Flash	US
22 February 2023	Reuters Thankan Index	Japan
23 February 2023	FOMC Minutes	US
23 February 2023	CPI Inflation JAN	EA
23 February 2023	GDP Growth Rate QoQ4 Q	US
23 February 2023	Core PCE prices Q4	US
24 February 2023	Inflation rate JAN	Japan
24 February 2023	Gfk consumer confidence	GB
24 February 2023	Personal Income and Spending Jan	US
24 February 2023	PCE Price Index Jan	US
24 February 2023	Michigan Consumer Sentiments/Expectations	US

Crude Oil Prices

The crude oil prices ended lower on a weekly basis as traders worried that the prospect of US interest rate hikes could weigh on demand and got nervous about huge stockpiles of US crude inventories report. On Friday, crude oil fell sharply, as two Fed officials warned of aggressive rate hikes in the next Fed meeting and this lifted the US dollar, making oil more expensive for other currency holders.

On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil fell 3.9% while WTI crude oil was down 4.2%. However, soon we may see a rebound in crude prices as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised hope of increasing demand from China and a production cut of around 2 million barrels per day.

Last week, the falling crude oil prices have supported the domestic markets, any bounce back in crude oil prices could impact negatively the Indian stock market prediction.

FII & DIIs flow

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned buyers in the Indian equity markets last week. They have invested Rs Rs 4005.85 crore worth of shares while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought Rs 2735.1 crore in the cash segment during the week that ended on 17 Feb 2023.

After selling continuously from the start of 2023, foreign investors now turned buyers in the Indian equity markets last week. Experts feel that FIIs are back, as US inflation data continues to disappoint and Fed remains hawkish, emerging markets like India turn attractive again.

Some experts also feel that India’s growth story is intact, as per several economic indicators and that is why FIIs are coming back. Investors should closely monitor the FIIs buying spree, if it continues then we may see further upside in the market.

Conclusion:

In the coming week, the domestic markets may remain volatile due to the February month F&O expiry. The positive global cues and FIIs inflow can improve the market sentiments and we may see further upside in the markets in the next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.

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