Stock Market Prediction next week ( 20 Dec – 24 Dec 2021)
Stock Market Prediction next week ( 20 Dec – 24 Dec 2021): Indian equity benchmark indexes closed lower for the week ended 17 December and snap a 2-week winning streak. The equity benchmark indices declined 3 percent mainly on weak global cues. The broader markets also fell during the week while tracking their larger peers. The heavy selling pressure by the FIIs, weak economic data, and surges in the Covid Omicron virus in the country were the main reasons for the market fall.
Next week, global markets will be in a Christmas mood, volumes in the US and Europe will be lesser than normal days. We feel that the news of the Omicron virus is likely to dominate the market sentiments next week.
Key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next week
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
The fresh covid cases in India reported less than 10K for more than a month. The country’s active cases recorded 83,913, the lowest in 570 days as per the health ministry report. More than 136 crore vaccine doses administered so far in India of which 40% of the total administered second doses.
Now the risk is from the new Covid-19 variant Omicron, which was first detected in South Africa has been spreading to 89 countries including India. In Indian so far 126 Omicron cases were reported. It is rapidly rising in western countries and experts feel that it may continue to rise and could impact economic growth. European countries already started to reimpose the Covid related restrictions and others are likely to follow the same.
Indian markets will closely monitor the spread of the new variant for the next few weeks. We may see some volatility in the markets if more countries started to reimpose covid related restrictions in the coming days, to curb the spread of the virus. Traders need to watch out for the situation closely.
Global market Cues
Global markets ended mostly lower last week. The fears over the impact of the new covid variants and the prospect of the Central Bank’s monetary policy tightening sparked volatility in the global markets last week. The downside of the markets remained capped due to positive economic data.
In the next week, global markets will be in the mood to celebrate Christmas, so market volume will be less. The global markets are likely to react to the surges of new covid variants in various parts of the world and on the economic data that are going to release next week.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 20 December 21 | Loan Prime Rate | China |
| 22 December 21 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 | GB |
| 22 December 21 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 | US |
| 23 December 21 | Gfk Consumer Confidence | GB |
| 23 December 21 | Personal Income MoM Nov | US |
| 23 December 21 | Jobless claim | US |
| 23 December 21 | Michigan Inflation expectation final Dec | US |
| 24 December 21 | Inflation rate Nov | Japan |
Nifty and Bank Nifty prediction ( spot price) for the week (20 – 24 Dec)
On the weekly chart, the Nifty spot price current position is on Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if the Nifty spot price closes above 17080 for the target of 17430
Bank Nifty spot price current position is Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Bank Nifty spot price closes above 36040 for the target of 36910
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors ( FIIs) were continuously selling while the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were supporting the Indian markets. FIIs sold 10452.27 crores, whereas DIIs bought Rs 6341.14 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 17 December.
Except for September 21, FIIs are constantly selling in the Indian markets since April 21. In the last few months, FIIs were the biggest participants in the markets and that is why there is huge selling pressure. Besides, the rise in dollar price, signals by the US Fed to hike 3 interest rates next year are some reasons why FIIs are shifting money from emerging markets like India to other developed markets. This trend may continue for some time, traders need to closely monitor FIIs activity in the Indian markets.
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