Stock Market Prediction: Unveiling Insights for Aug 21-25 Trading
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (21-25 Aug 2023): Indian stock markets ended lower for the fourth consecutive week, the longest stretch of weekly declines of around 16 months. Sensex and Nifty ended with moderate losses due to the concern about the slowdown in China and renewed interest hike fear from the US after strong economic data. The persistent selling pressure from foreign investors in the local markets also hit the market sentiments during the week.
In the coming week, the global cues will drive the domestic markets. China will announce the Loan Prime rate, US Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium, Michigan Consumer sentiments, and Flash PMI data from several countries will remain in focus. The FIIs activity and Crude oil prices will also remain in focus next week. The other key factors likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (21- 25 Aug 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
The Nifty index was hovering near the range of the 19300 and 19450 zone for quite some time maintaining the crucial support zone of 19270- 19300 levels. The bias remains cautious till the index trades below 19450 levels and doesn’t breach decisively.
The Nifty index has a significant 50EMA level that lies near the 19270 level and a decisive breach below that zone would weaken the trend to anticipate further slide. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in a range of 19250-19500
Bank Nifty index was also moving near the 43700-44000 zone with a cautious bias with 43300 levels acting as the major crucial support zone. If the Bank Nifty index breaches this level, the overall trend would turn weak, and can expect intensified profit booking ahead.
At the same time, as mentioned earlier, it would need a decisive move past the 44400 zone, for the bias to improve and expect further rise. On a weekly basis, Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 43400-44400 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Listing of Jio Financial Services
Investors are eagerly waiting for the listing of Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFSL) on 21 Aug 2023, Monday. On Friday, markets reacted positively and Reliance reversed its losses after it announced the listing date of JFSL. According to the BSE notice, the scrip will be in the trade-for-trade segment for 10 trading days. JFSL shares were credited in the ratio of 1:1 to all eligible RIL shareholders as of the record date of July 20.
The valuation of Jio Financial Services’ share price was derived at ₹261.85 per share but some analysts are expecting JFSL to debut at premium on Monday. Reliance Industries closed 0.51 percent higher on Friday, and the debut of JFSL will also influence the heavyweight stock Reliance on Monday, traders should keep track of both stocks
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets closed lower for the week ending 18 Aug 2023. The sentiments remain downbeat due to renewed fear of interest rate hikes in the US after the Fed’s minutes were released. The market sentiments were also hit due to the slowdown in China, as a slew of official data showed that China’s economic activity continued to weaken.
Next week From US Markets
In the coming week, more earnings from US retailers including Lowe’s, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Dollar Tree, and others will remain focused. While Zoom, Nvidia, and TD Banks will also release their second quarterly earnings in the coming week. The existing July home sales data, durables goods order, Michigan consumer sentiments, and August flash PMI data from the US will drive the markets.
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
The three-day annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is starting from (24-26 Aug) in Kansas City. Central bankers, finance ministers, policymakers, and economists from around the world will gather at the event to discuss economic constraints, global supply issues, and inflation. Fed Chair Powell’s speech is scheduled for 25th Aug and all traders will be closely monitoring the event to gauge further monetary policy tightening to tame inflation.
Next Week from Other Global Markets
Next week, traders should closely monitor any updates from Beijing, China’s Prime Loan rate for 1 & 5 years will be released on Monday. The PMI survey data from several countries will be released in the coming week and are likely to influence global markets. The various other macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction next week are.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 21 August 2023 | Loan Prime Rate 1yr-5yrs | China |
| 22 August 2023 | Existing Home Sales July | US |
| 23 August 2023 | Jibun Bank PMI Flash Aug | Japan |
| 23 August 2023 | HCOB PMI Flash Aug | EA |
| 23 August 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS PMI Flash Aug | GB |
| 23 August 2023 | S&P Global PMI Flash Aug | US |
| 23 August 2023 | Consumer Confidence Flash Aug | EA |
| 23 August 2023 | New Home Sales July | US |
| 24 August 2023 | Durable Goods Order July | US |
| 24 August 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 24 August 2023 | Jackson Hole Symposium | US |
| 25 August 2023 | Gfk Consumer Confidence Aug | GB |
| 25 August 2023 | Tokyo CPI and Core CPI Aug | Japan |
| 25 August 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Aug | US |
| 25 August 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation Aug | US |
| 25 August 2023 | Michigan Consumer Expectation Aug | US |
| 25 August 2023 | Fed’s Chair Powell’s Speech | US |
| 25 August 2023 | Jackson Hole Symposium | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices rebounded on Friday and closed around 1% higher due to signs of slowing US output. While on a weekly basis, the crude oil benchmarks snapped their longest weekly winning streak of 2023 due to the concern about global demand growth.
On a weekly basis, the US WTI crude oil was down 2.3% while London bases Brent was down 2.8%. A further correction in crude oil prices will impact positively the domestic markets. Traders should keep a close eye on the crude oil prices in the coming week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets. They have sold shares in three out of four trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 3379.31 crore during the week.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 3892.3 crore, more than the FIIs selling, and supported the domestic markets from any significant fall,
As of August 18, FIIs were net sellers and offloaded shares worth Rs 10925.84 crore and DIIs have bought shares worth Rs 9245.86. DIIs have somewhat supported the domestic markets from any big fall buying almost equal amounts of shares.
While the strong dollar and high US bond yields prompted foreign investors to sell in the Indian markets. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs activity in the coming week to know the market direction.
Conclusion
Currently, both domestic and global market trends are negative. However, the rating agency Moody’s has affirmed the BAA3 rating on India, holding a ‘stable’ outlook for the Indian economy on Friday after market hours. This can uplift domestic market sentiments on Monday. Traders need to closely monitor the above-mentioned factors, which can influence the stock market prediction next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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Happy Investing!!
Editor’s Desk
