Stock Market Prediction Next Week (24- 28 July 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (24- 28 July 2023): Indian stock markets closed higher for the fourth consecutive week. The domestic market sentiments were optimistic due to positive cues from US markets, FIIs inflow, and on corporate news. However, the upside was remain capped due to the disappointment of Infosys and HUL Q1 results.
In the coming week, markets will be focusing mainly on monthly F&O expiry, quarterly results, and crucial global central bank monetary policy and economic data. The other key factors that are likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (24-28 July 2023)
F&O Expiry-Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
There was an anticipation of profit booking in the markets near the highly overbought zone. On Friday, markets witnessed heavy profit booking and the Nifty index starts correcting from around the psychological figure of the 20000 zone.
The IT giants like Infosys and TCS shed their gains heavily and dragged down the benchmark to 19700 levels with bias turning a little bit weak. The Nifty index’s near-term support is at around 19600 levels. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in a range between 20100-19500 levels.
The Bank Nifty index, however, maintained the 46000 level as a strong support area with most of the frontline banking stocks like Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and SBI indicating strength and having upside potential from current levels.
The 46000 zone would be the crucial support area for the Bank Nifty index, whereas moving above the 46300 zone would once again trigger a strong upward momentum in the coming sessions. On a weekly basis, Bank Nifty could trade in a range of 45000-47300 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
1st Quarter Earnings
Next week traders will be busy analyzing corporate earnings, as sixteen Nifty 50 companies are going to announce their 1st quarter results. Despite the global slowdown, Indian companies managed to deliver strong results in the previous quarter. Hence, investors are more hopeful about the Q1FY24 quarterly results.
On Monday, the market will first react to Reliance’s quarterly earnings. Reliance announced its Q1FY24 results on Friday post markets. Reliance slipped over 2% ahead of the earnings. Its Q1FY24 net profit declined 6% dented by oil-to-chemicals performance.
While Kotak Bank announced its first-quarter earnings on Saturday and its net profit surged to 67% YoY, beating market estimates. ICICI Bank’s profit jumped 40% YoY, beating market estimates, as per the Q1FY24 results announced on Saturday. The schedule for the next week’s quarterly earnings of those corporates listed in the Nifty 50 index is given below.
| Q1FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 24 July 2023 | Tata Steel |
| 25 July 2023 | Asian Paints |
| 25 July 2023 | Bajaj Auto |
| 25 July 2023 | LT |
| 25 July 2023 | SBI Life |
| 25 July 2023 | Tata Motors |
| 26 July 2023 | Axis Bank |
| 26 July 2023 | Bajaj Finance |
| 26 July 2023 | BPCL |
| 26 July 2023 | Cipla |
| 26 July 2023 | Dr, Reddy |
| 26 July 2023 | Tata Consumer |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Bajaj Finserve |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Nestle India |
| 28 Jul 2023 | IOC |
| 29 Jul 2023 | NTPC |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global markets were closed in a mixed state this week. The decline in tech stocks after the quarterly results of Tesla and Netflix weighs on market sentiments. While weaker-than-expected economic data from China also hit the market sentiments. Investors also remain cautious ahead of the global central bank’s monetary policy decision next week.
In the coming week, the global stock markets will be highly volatile, as traders will be busy analyzing the quarterly earnings. Big tech companies like Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will announce their second-quarter earnings next week. Investors will stay sideline and will be closely watching the global central banks-US Fed, ECB, and BoJ’s interest rate decision.
The key economic data like China’s industrial profits, PMI flash, US GDP number, and PCE will set the market direction next week. The other macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market predictions are given below.
Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 24 July 2023 | Jibun Bank PMI Flash July | Japan |
| 24 July 2023 | HCOB PMI Flash July | EA |
| 24 July 2023 | S&P/CIPS PMI Flash July | GB |
| 24 July 2023 | S&P Global PMI Flash July | US |
| 25 July 2023 | CBI Business Optimism Index Q3 | GB |
| 25 July 2023 | House Price Index May | US |
| 25 July 2023 | CB Consumer Confidence | US |
| 26 July 2023 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | US |
| 27 July 2023 | Industrial Profits June | China |
| 27 July 2023 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | EA |
| 27 July 2023 | Durable Goods Order June | US |
| 27 July 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 | US |
| 27 July 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 27 July 2023 | PCE/ Core PCE Prices Q2 | US |
| 28 July 2023 | Tokyo CPI Price July | Japan |
| 28 July 2023 | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | Japan |
| 28 July 2023 | Economic/ Consumer Sentiments July | EA |
| 28 July 2023 | PCE Price Index June | US |
| 28 July 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment July | US |
| 28 July 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation July | US |
Global Central Bank Monetary Policy
The market volatility will increase in the second half of next week, as traders will be closely monitoring the interest rate decision of several central banks- US Federal Reserves, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan.
Policymakers from Federal Reserves will start a two-day July policy meeting on Tuesday and out come expected on Wednesday, July 26. Traders are expecting a 25 bps hike but the press conference of Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell after the outcome will be important for further guidelines.
On July 27, European Central Bank (ECB) will announce the policy decision. According to the Reuters poll, ECB to raise 25 bps interest rate in next week’s meeting, a slight majority of economists are also expecting another hike in September.
On July 28, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce the interest rate decision. It is expected that the central bank would tweak its yield curve control (YCC) framework in the July meeting. As the June core inflation came slightly higher than the previous month, it is highly expected BoJ may raise its inflation forecast on Friday.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices gained for the fourth straight week. The rally in crude oil is mainly due to Saudi and Russian discussions to further oil production cuts and the declining trend of inflation which largely affected the Federal Reserves’s monetary policy stance.
On a weekly basis, WTI crude oil gained 2.2% while Brent crude was up by 1.5%.On a monthly basis, crude oil prices gained around 9% in July so far. Despite the 4 weeks’ gain, the crude oil prices have not crossed the OPEC+ target of $80 per barrel due to weak economic growth in China.
As per the market analyst, the crude oil prices are to trade between $74- $77 per barrel in the coming week. As far as crude oil prices remain below $80 it will not impact the markets. So traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in the Indian equity markets, they bought shares worth Rs 1372.13 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net sellers last week, they offloaded shares worth Rs 2519.82 crore.
FIIs continued their buying spree and Indian markets hit a fresh record high on Thursday. They invested heavily even after the global cues were negative. In the month of July, out of 15 trading sessions, FIIs were the net buyers in 13 sessions, while DIIs showed a renewed interest in buying for 5 sessions, but have returned to offloading in markets.
On Friday, markets fell sharply and FIIs turned sellers, while DIIs were net buyers, but FIIs offloaded more than DIIs. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs/DIIs activity next week, if foreign investors start selling then we may see selling pressure in the markets.
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Other Key Factors
Other than the above factors, traders should keep updated on the progress in the monsoon rain and the movement of the rupee against the dollar in the coming week. The parliament monsoon session has started. As a number of bills are likely to be tabled during the monsoon session, traders should keep updated about the news.
Conclusion
The domestic markets are likely to remain highly volatile in the coming week. Indian markets fell sharply on Friday while US and European markets ended with little change. Markets will first react to the weekend quarterly earnings on Monday and then follow the global cues. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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