Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25- 29 April 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25- 29 April 2022): Indian stock market indexes closed lower for the week ended 22 April. The market sentiments were negative due to fear of aggressive interest rate hikes in the US, FIIs outflow, lockdowns in China, and weak quarterly earnings. In the coming week, the domestic markets will remain volatile due to the monthly F&O expiry, quarterly earnings, and geopolitical tension. The other factors that are likely to impact the domestic markets are as follows.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (25 – 29 April 2022)- Key factors to watch out
Quarterly Earnings
The quarterly earnings will play a vital role to set the market direction. In the coming week, as many as eleven Nifty50 companies will be announcing their quarterly results. So far markets reacted negatively after the release of 4th Quarter earnings like TCS, Infosys, and HDFC Bank. On Monday, the domestic markets will first react to the ICICI Bank Q4 results, which has announced its earnings on Saturday and beats market estimates. The Nifty50 companies that are going to announce their Q4 corporate results in the next week are given below.
| Q4 FY22 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 26 Apr 2022 | Bajaj Finance |
| 26 Apr 2022 | HDFC Life |
| 27 Apr 2022 | Bajaj-Auto |
| 27 Apr 2022 | HUL |
| 28 Apr 2022 | Axis Bank |
| 28 Apr 2022 | Bajaj Finserve |
| 28 Apr 2022 | SBI Life |
| 29 Apr 2022 | IndusInd Bank |
| 29 Apr 2022 | Maruti Suzuki |
| 29 Apr 2022 | Ultratech Cement |
| 29 Apr 2022 | Wipro |
Russia- Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine war has triggered a huge rise in global crude oil prices. India imports 80% of its crude oil and 45% of its natural gas and paying high prices almost for two months. The high crude oil prices have not only hiked the food inflation but also increased manufacturing production prices. The impact of inflation can be seen in the Q4 corporate earnings. On the other hand, the rising inflation will force RBI to become more hawkish in the coming monetary policy.
The Ukraine crisis is now having an impact on the global economy, especially on developing countries. This includes disruption in supply chains and its adverse impact on energy and commodity prices. The hopes of peace talks have become dimmed now as Russia has intensified its bombardment in eastern Ukraine. The uncertainty of the Ukraine war will continue, any further negative news on this front will make the global market volatile.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global market indexes closed lower for the week ended 22 April. The hawkish comment from the US Fed Chairman for an aggressive interest rate hike, geopolitical tension, lockdown extension in China, and weak quarterly earnings impacted negatively for the global markets.
In the coming week, the global markets will remain volatile due to uncertainties. Other than the below macroeconomic data, traders will also focus on the quarterly earnings and analyze the impact of higher inflation on the corporate earnings.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 25-04-2022 | Unemployment rate | Japan |
| 26-04-2022 | New Home Sales MAR | US |
| 27-04-2022 | Industrial Profits MAR | China |
| 28-04-2022 | Retail Sales MAR | Japan |
| 28-04-2022 | Industrial Production MAR | Japan |
| 28-04-2022 | BoJ Rate Decision | Japan |
| 28-04-2022 | GDP Growth rate Q1 | US |
| 28-04-2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 29-04-2022 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment APR | US |
Crude Oil Price
The crude oil prices closed lower on Friday, posting a weekly loss of nearly 5 percent due to weaker global growth. The fear of US interest rates and covid-19 lockdowns in China were also hurting the oil demand even after the European Union imposed a ban on Russian oil that would tighten supply.
Analyst at Morgan Stanley said that the supply gap of 1 million bpd in the third and fourth quarters will keep the prices higher. It has revised its forecast upwards for the second half of the year by $10 per barrel at $130 due to a greater than expected supply deficit resulting from Western sanctions imposed against Russia. The volatility in the crude oil prices will make the domestic markets choppy, traders need to closely monitor the movement of crude oil prices in the coming week.
Monthly F&O Expiry- Nifty & Bank Nifty prediction
Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 16800 to 17600 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current Nifty trend for Monday is Mild Positive.
Bank Nifty spot price trading range for the week is 35000 to 37400. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Mild negative.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates.
Omicron Covid Virus & Risk
India reported 2527 new Covid-19 cases and 33 news covid-related death on Saturday in the last 24 hrs. The active cases now stand at 15079 according to the health ministry. Delhi alone reported 1042 fresh Covid cases with a positivity rate of 4.64 percent. Though the covid cases are surging in Delhi and nearby areas, the hospitalization rate has so far been low and accounting for less than 3 percent of the total active cases.
The countries that are reporting surges in Covid cases are China, Taiwan, Bhutan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. China the 2nd largest economy has extended the lockdown of its major cities till 26 April 2022. Though there is no restriction imposed in India so far for surging covid cases, traders need to closely monitor the news related covid cases in the country, any restriction if imposed then it would be negative for the domestic market.
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were sellers in the Indian equity markets whereas Domestic Investors were the buyers during the week. FIIs sold Rs 18443.81 crore while DIIs bought Rs 14394.34 crore during the week ended 22 April 2022.
As per the recent report, FII/ FPIs have been a big seller in the Indian equity markets for the past several months. However, BofA believes that a potential reversal of outflows from the equity markets could see ownership levels turn around in the upcoming months.
While DIIs, on the other hand, continued their buying spree with monthly flows touching a new high at $6 billion, up 19 % on the month on monthly basis supporting the domestic markets from a big fall. In the month of April 2022, FIIs have pulled out Rs 29206.19 crore while DIIs have pumped in Rs 20166.48 crores in the equity cash segment.
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