Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26- 30 Sept 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26- 30 Sept 2022): Indian equity markets fell consecutively for the second week ended on 23 September. The market sentiments become downbeat after US Federal Reserve hiked 75 basis points interest rate for the third time. In absence of any major domestic events, the local markets fell on weak global cues and on selling pressure from FIIs during the week.
In the coming weak, Indian markets will remain volatile due to RBI interest rate decision outcome and monthly F&O expiry. The Q2 GDP numbers of the US and UK, fear of recession, and geopolitical tension will also remain the focus next week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock markets are
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (26- 30 Sept 2022)
Monthly F&O Expiry: Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
Nifty touched an important support zone at 17300 on Friday, with bias overall turning weak and stocks witnessing heavy profit booking and shedding their gains. From hereon the next crucial level lies near the significant 200 DMA levels of 17000, which if broken would further weaken the trend and intensify selling pressure can be seen. Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 17600 to 17000 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current trend of Nifty for Monday is negative
Bank Nifty also fell heavily in comparison to Nifty shedding more than 1000 points and closed at 39500 levels with the weekly trend turning down after 11 weeks and bias turning week. On the spot price, it could trade in the range of 38500 to 40500. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is Negative.
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RBI Monetary Policy & other domestic economic data
In the coming week, the main focus will be the RBI policy outcome on the 30th of September, Friday. After the Fed’s aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points, more central banks across the globe joined the Fed in raising the interest rates to control inflation, and now it’s time for RBI.
According to market experts and brokerage houses, RBI may raise its policy rate by another 50 bps at its policy meeting and a further 25 bps in December, meeting to 6.15%. Indian equity markets are likely to remain volatile next week ahead of the RBI policy outcome. The other macroeconomic data for the next week are given below
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 30 Sept 2022 | RBI Interest Rate Decision |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Current Account Q2 |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Infrastructure Output |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week global markets fell sharply due to Fed’s aggressive interest rate hike decision on Wednesday. Several other central banks followed Fed and hiked the rate to control record-high inflation. The economic data released during the week in Europe, the US, Japan, and China also remains weak and hit the market sentiments.
Traders will be closely monitoring the fresh escalation of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tension next week. The Q2 GDP numbers for US and UK, China’s Manufacturing PMI data, US consumer confidence, and new home sales data will also remain focused. The other macroeconomic data that are going to release next week are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 26 Sept 2022 | Jibun Bank PMI flash Sept | Japan |
| 26 Sept 2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp | HK |
| 27 Sept 2022 | Industrial Profit YoY Aug | China |
| 27 Sept 2022 | House Price Index YoY July | US |
| 27 Sept 2022 | CB Consumer Confidence SEP | US |
| 27 Sept 2022 | New Home sales Aug | US |
| 28 Sept 2022 | Wholesale & Retail Inventories Aug | US |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Economic/Consumer/Services Sentiments SEP | EA |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Consumer Inflation Expectation SEP | EA |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 29 Sept 2022 | GDP Growth Rate Final Q2 | US |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Unemployment Rate AUG | Japan |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Retail Sales AUG | Japan |
| 29 Sept 2022 | Industrial Produiction MoM AUG | Japan |
| 30 Sept 2022 | NBS PMI SEP | China |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI SEP | China |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Consumer Confidence | Japan |
| 30 Sept 2022 | GDP Growth QoQ Final Q2 | GB |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Current Account Q2 | GB |
| 30 Sept 2022 | BoE Consumer Credit AUG | GB |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Unemployment Rate SEP | EA |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Inflation Rate Flash | EA |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Personal Spending MoM AUG | US |
| 30 Sept 2022 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Final SEP | US |
Indian Rupee Movements against US dollar
The Indian rupee hit a new low against the dollar on Friday. It hits 81.23 a dollar and later regained some ground after most likely RBI’s intervention and closed at 80.99 in the spot market. During the week the Indian currency fell 1.6% due to US Federal Reserve’s decision to hike the interest rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday.
On Saturday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Indian rupee has “held back very well” when compared with any other currencies against the US dollar. She further told in an event that RBI and Finance Ministry is keeping a very close watch over the developments. In the coming week, we may see some appreciation in the Indian currency against the dollar.
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil tanked almost 5% on Friday to an eight-month low Friday, as the US dollar hits its strongest levels in more than two decades due to a fear of recession. The Brent crude oil futures fell around 6% and WTI was down about 7% for the week ended 23 September.
Last week several central banks raised their interest rate and this fear global economic slowdown. The crude oil tanked due to lower demand and growing fears over the looming global recession. The falling crude oil prices are good for oil importing countries like India. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the coming week as the falling crude price can support the Indian equity markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Last week, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned into the net sellers in the Indian equity markets, they sold Rs 4321.66 crore. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were turned into the net buyers and they bought Rs 1137.96 crore during the week ended 23 September.
After strong buying in the month of August, FIIs have turned into net sellers in September. FIIs have sold Rs 2445.82 crore in the Indian equity markets so far in September. They remained net sellers in the last three days after US Fed hiked 75 basis points interest rate. Experts feel that the FII’s selling spree may continue until the US rising bond yields stabilize or decline.
Conclusion:
Indian stock markets are likely to remain highly volatile in the coming week. RBI Monetary policy outcome and global cues will be focused on next week.
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