Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27-31 March 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27-31 March 2023): Indian stock market indexes ended lower for the third consecutive week. The market sentiments were hit due to the lingering banking crisis, FII selling pressure, amendment of Finance Bill 2023, and the steepest rise in STT on selling F&O segments.
The coming week will be the truncated one and the last week of the current financial year. The domestic markets will remain closed on Thursday due to Ram Navami. The monthly F&O expiry is scheduled for Wednesday 29 March instead of Thursday.
The Indian stock market will remain volatile in the coming week due to monthly F&O expiry, the renewed banking crisis in Europe, and global macroeconomic data. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction as given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27- 31 March 2023)
Monthly Expiry- Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
On Friday, the Nifty index maintained near the 17050 zone in the first half and thereafter resisted near 17100. The Nifty index once again slipped and closed near 16950 levels. It has made an intraday low near the 16900 zone and the bias turning weak.
For the Nifty index, the 16800 level will be the crucial and significant support zone while on the upside 17200 zone continue to be the important resistance barrier and that needs to be breached for the overall trend to improve. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in the range of 16600-17250 levels.
Bank Nifty index also witnessing resistance near the 39800 zone. Due to profit booking the index slide down and end near the 39400 zone. The index has once again slipped below the important 200DMA level of 39740 and has the major support zone near 38700-38600 levels. The Bank Nifty would trade in a weekly range of 38200-40500 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
The RBI’s latest data released on Friday showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $12.8 billion to $572.8 billion as on March 17, 2023. This is the highest level since early February. In the coming week, below macroeconomic data are going to release.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 31st March 2023 | External Debt Q4 |
| 31st March 2023 | Government Budget Value Feb |
| 31st March 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
| 31st March 2023 | Infrastructure Output Feb |
| 31st March 2023 | Current Account Q4 |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The major global stock market indexes ended higher during the week that ended on 24 March. The markets gained despite the ongoing fear of a global banking and financial crisis. On Friday, the banking shares fell sharply in Europe after the top German lender Deutsche Bank’s shares tanked almost 14% on an intraday basis and later closed around 8% lower for the day.
Next week, all eyes will be on German top lender Deutsche Bank, though analysts feel that “Deutsche is NOT the next Credit Suisse” but still traders need to have a close eye on the stock.
On the economic front, the US and UK GDP data will remain focused during the week. Other macroeconomic data like China’s Industrial profit, US consumer sentiments and PCE price index, and Japan’s unemployment rate are likely to impact the global market next week.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 27 March 2023 | Industrial Profits Feb | China |
| 28 March 2023 | Retail Inventories Feb | US |
| 28 March 2023 | House Price Index Jan | US |
| 29 March 2023 | Pending Home Sales Feb | US |
| 30 March 2023 | Industrial /Services Sentiments Mar | EA |
| 30 March 2023 | Consumer Confidence Mar | EA |
| 30 March 2023 | GDP Price Index Q4 | US |
| 30 March 2023 | Initial Jobless Claims | US |
| 30 March 2023 | PCE Price Q4 | US |
| 31 March 2023 | Unemployment Rate Feb | Japan |
| 31 March 2023 | Tokyo CPI Mar | Japan |
| 31 March 2023 | Retail Sales Feb | Japan |
| 31 March 2023 | Industrial Production Feb | Japan |
| 31 March 2023 | NBS Manufg/ Non- Manufg PMI March | China |
| 31 March 2023 | GDP Growth rate Q4 | GB |
| 31 March 2023 | Unemployment Rate Feb | EA |
| 31 March 2023 | Inflation rate Flash March | EA |
| 31 March 2023 | PCE Price Index Feb | US |
| 31 March 2023 | Personal Income/Spending Feb | US |
| 31 March 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Mar | US |
Banking Turmoil
The ongoing banking crisis started with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), then Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, and now Deutsche Bank. The share of Germany’s top lender Deutsche Bank fell sharply on Friday. At one point in time, it was down 14%.
Later the losses were trimmed after ECB President Christine Lagarde told EU leaders that the euro area banking sector has strong capital, liquidity positions, and post-2008 reforms. She also said the ECB would provide liquidity to the financial system if needed.
The bank has lost one-fifth of its value since the beginning of March. However, some observers have pointed to a sudden increase in the cost of insuring Deutsche Bank’s debt against a possible default as a reason for the decline, while others feel due to fear in the banking industry.
Traders need to closely monitor the news related to Deutsche Bank, as it can further escalate the ongoing banking crisis.
Crude Oil Prices
Last week crude oil prices closed higher but the upside remained capped due to renewed banking crisis. After gaining for the first three sessions during the week, the prices fell in the last two days due to fresh concerns about Deutsche Bank. On a weekly basis, WTI crude oil price gained 3.8% while Brent crude oil was up by 2.8%.
The banking crisis is particularly important and impacts oil prices, as commodities are depended heavily on banks to provide liquidity. The falling crude oil prices always support the domestic markets, as India is the second-largest importer of crude oils. Traders need to closely monitor the crude oil prices in the coming week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets last week. They offloaded shares worth Rs 6654.23 crore while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought Rs 9430.59 crore in the cash segment during the week that ended on 24 March 2023.
On a monthly basis also FIIs turned into net sellers, so far till 24 March FIIs offloaded shares worth Rs 246.04 crore while DIIs bought Rs 25599.99 crore. After investing in November, this would be the fourth consecutive month FIIs are selling in the Indian equity markets. Traders should closely monitor the FII and DII actively,
Conclusion:
Indian stock market will remain volatile in the coming week due to monthly F&O expiry and ongoing banking crisis. After Friday’s fall, the domestic markets are looking negative in the near term. Traders should remain cautious and avoid taking a carryforward position ahead of expiry. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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You may also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 27 March 2023
Global Stock Market: Dow ends the volatile week higher
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