Stock Market Prediction Next Week (28 Aug-1 Sept 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (28 Aug-1 Sept 2023): Indian stock markets ended lower for the fifth consecutive week, the longest stretch of weekly decline since April 2022. The Sensex and Nifty closed slightly lower by 0.10 percent and 0.23 percent respectively during the week.
The domestic markets fell due to weak global cues, selling pressure from FIIs, and RBI minutes which revealed that the central bank is concerned about surging inflation.
In the coming week, the domestic economic data including GDP growth for the second quarter, PMI, and Infrastructure output data will derive the markets. On the global front, US GDP growth for Q2, PCE index, and Unemployment Rate, PMI data from several economies, Inflation rate from Europe will set the market direction.
The other key factors likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (28 Aug- 1 Sept 2023)
Monthly Expiry- Nifty & Bank Nifty Next Week
The monthly F&O expiry is scheduled on Thursday 31st August. The domestic markets are expected to remain volatile this week, as traders will roll over their position from the August to September or far month series.
On Friday, the Nifty index opened on a weak note and was hovering near the crucial support zone of 19270 levels which is also where the significant 50EMA lies. A decisive breach below the 19250- 19270 zone shall further weaken the overall bias.
Closing below this mentioned level can trigger a sell-off with the next major support zone visible near the 18800-18900 levels with 19000 as the psychological landmark in-between. On a weekly basis, Nifty could trade in a range between 19000-19600 levels.
The Bank Nifty index also breached below the important 50EMA level of the 44500 zone and ended near the 44250 levels, weakening the bias further ahead.
It has crucial major support near 43400 levels which if decisively breached can trigger a fresh sell-off to anticipate further slide. On a weekly basis, the Bank Nifty index could trade in the range of 43300-45300 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
India’s GDP growth rate for the second quarter (April- June) of 2023 will be announced on Thursday 31st August. The country’s economy expanded 6.1% YoY in the first quarter of 2023, higher than the upwardly revised 4.5% in Q4 2022 and above the forecast of 5%.
According to a Reuters poll of economists, Indian economic growth likely picked up to 7.7% in the April- June quarter at the fastest annual pace in a year. The accelerated growth could be due to strong demand, robust service sector growth, and increased government expenditure. In the coming week, the domestic market sentiments can improve due to GDP growth optimism.
On the same day, the infrastructure output data for July will also be released. In June, the Infrastructure output in India rose to a five-month high of 8.2% YoY, from an upwardly revised 5% advance in the previous month. In July it is expected to remain around 6% as per market experts. The other macroeconomic data for the next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 31st August 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 |
| 31st August 2023 | Government Budget Value July |
| 31st August 2023 | Infrastructure Output July |
| 1 September 2023 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Aug |
| 1 September 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Auto Sales
The automakers will start announcing its monthly auto sales report on 1st September. The Indian auto industry reported a 10% YoY increase in auto sales in July but a 5% decline on an MoM basis. According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), all categories reported YoY growth in July 2023, but on MoM except for 3-wheelers, all other categories reported a decline.
Market experts feel that retail auto sales are expected to increase, as the festive season starts by the middle of August, but the below-average rainfall in August may impact sales. Traders having exposure to auto stocks should remain cautious.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock market indexes mostly closed higher during the week. The initial rally in the tech stocks due to optimism of US AI chipmaker Nvidia’s quarterly results supported the global markets. However, S&P Global’s downgrades of five US regional banks hit the market sentiments. The quarterly earnings of US retailers during the week also disappoint.
Investors were disappointed after the Central Bank of China left the 5-year LPR unchanged, the slowdown in China hit the investor sentiment in the region. The flash manufacturing PMI data released in Japan, Europe, and the US during the week also disappoints.
In the coming week, US job opening reports, Q2 GDP, monthly Unemployment data, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge Price Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data will drive the global markets. Europe’s flash inflation rate for August and PMI manufacturing data from China, Japan, the US, and Europe will also be in focus next week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction next week are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 29 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate July | Japan |
| 29 August 2023 | House Price Index June | US |
| 29 August 2023 | JOLTs Job Opening July | US |
| 29 August 2023 | CB Consumer Confidence Aug | US |
| 30 August 2023 | Consumer Confidence Aug | Japan |
| 30 August 2023 | BoE Consumer Credit July | GB |
| 30 August 2023 | Economic Sentiments Aug | EA |
| 30 August 2023 | Industrial Sentiments Aug | EA |
| 30 August 2023 | Consumer Confidence Aug | EA |
| 30 August 2023 | Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug | EA |
| 30 August 2023 | ADP Employment Change Aug | US |
| 30 August 2023 | Goods Trade Bal Aug | US |
| 30 August 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 | US |
| 30 August 2023 | PCE Price Index Q2 | US |
| 30 August 2023 | Core PCE Q2 | US |
| 30 August 2023 | Pending Home Sales July | US |
| 31 August 2023 | Retail Sales July | Japan |
| 31 August 2023 | Industrial Production July | Japan |
| 31 August 2023 | NBS Manfg and Non-Manufacturing PMI Aug | China |
| 31 August 2023 | Inflation Rate Flash Aug | EA |
| 31 August 2023 | Core Inflation Rate Flash Aug | EA |
| 31 August 2023 | Unemployment Rate July | EA |
| 31 August 2023 | Core PCE Price Index July | US |
| 31 August 2023 | PCE Price Index July | US |
| 31 August 2023 | Personal Income & Spending July | US |
| 31 August 2023 | Weekly Jobless Claims | US |
| 1st September 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Aug | Japan |
| 1st September 2023 | Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI Aug | China |
| 1st September 2023 | S&P Global/ CIPS manufacturing PMI Aug | GB |
| 1st September 2023 | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Aug | EA |
| 1st September 2023 | Non-farm Payroll Aug | US |
| 1st September 2023 | Unemployment Rate Aug | US |
| 1st September 2023 | S&P Global/ ISM Manufacturing PMI Aug | US |
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
On Monday, Asian markets will first react to the US Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell’s speech which was delivered on Friday. The US markets were initially volatile after Powell’s speech but later markets recovered, as investors accessed that the speech was less hawkish than they had feared. We feel the Asian stock markets may follow the same on Monday.
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices also rose after the much-awaited US Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but the gains weren’t enough to offset the losses in the early week. On a weekly basis, the crude oil benchmarks decline for the second consecutive week.
The US crude benchmark WTI was down by 1.7%, while London-based Brent declined only 0.4% during the week. The fall in crude prices is positive for the domestic markets traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets. They have sold shares in three out of five trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 4,638.2 crore during the week.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week. They bought shares worth Rs 8495.99 crore, more than the FIIs selling, and supported the domestic markets from any significant fall.
As of August 25, FIIs were net sellers and offloaded shares worth Rs 15821.13 crore and DIIs have bought shares worth Rs 17741.85. DIIs have somewhat supported the domestic markets from any big fall by investing more than FIIs selling.
Conclusion:
Technically, the outlook for global as well as domestic markets is looking bearish next week, as investors are concerned about the global economy and rising bond yields. However, we may see a relief rally in the domestic market next week.
Traders need to closely monitor the above-mentioned factors, which can influence the stock market prediction next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7:30 a.m. to know the market direction.
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Nifty and Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday 28 Aug 2023
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