Stock Market Prediction Next Week (3- 7 Oct 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (3- 7 Oct 2022): Indian stock markets fell for the third consecutive week. The market sentiments were negative due to weak global cues, FII’s selling pressure, and weakness in the Indian currency. However, the downside was limited, as the RBI policy outcome was in line with the market expectation.
The coming week will be the truncated one, as Wednesday 5 October, markets will remain closed on account of Dussehra. Next week, Indian markets will first react to robust GST collections and then followed by PMI data and Auto sales numbers. The other key factors that are likely to impact the domestic markets are the Indian rupee movement, FIIs fund flow, Oil prices, and global cues.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (3- 7 Oct 2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
Last week Nifty has indicated strong support near 16750-16800 levels and a decent pullback indicating a “Bullish Engulfing Pattern” on the daily chart has improved the bias and another session of a positive close above 17200 levels would require to confirm the further upward journey in the next week. Technically, the Nifty spot price could trade in the range of 17400 to 16700 during the week. You can buy near low and sell at high. The current trend of Nifty for Monday would be range-bound.
Bank Nifty also indicated a strong pullback from the 37400 levels with a big positive bullish candle to strengthen the bias. Though the overall bias improved but further clarification is awaited. On the spot price, it could trade in the range of 40000 to 37400. You can buy near low and sell on the higher side. The current trend in Bank Nifty for Monday is to remain cautious.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Domestic macroeconomic data
On Saturday, the Finance Ministry said the country’s GST collection in September rose 26% to over Rs 1.47 lakh crore. This is the seventh consecutive month, the GST collections rose more than 1.40 lakh crore. Whereas the country’s overall forex reserves declined by $8.134 billion to $537.518 billion for the week ended September 23, as per RBI data.
On Monday, markets will react positively to the robust GST collection while the dip in forex reserve is due to RBI’s intervention to defend the Indian currency against global volatility. The other domestic macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the market are given below
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 03 October 2022 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Sept |
| 03 October 2022 | Bal of Trade Exp /Imp Prel Sept |
| 06 October 2022 | S&P Global Services & Comp PMI Sept |
| 07 October 2022 | S&P Global Deport & Loan Growth |
Auto Sales Numbers
The auto sector will be the focus next week, as auto companies started announcing their September sales number from 1st October onwards. According to the experts, India’s auto sales rose in September, as companies continued to ramp up dispatches to dealerships for the festive season.
Auto sales are likely to witness a jump during the festive season due to an improved supply of semiconductors and a favorable base effect. In the year same period, the previous year, there was a shortage of semiconductors, which had hit the auto markets badly. Auto stocks may witness some buying in the next week.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets were closed lower last week due to fear of global recession and turmoil in UK financial markets. The economic data released on Friday indicates that US inflation to remain high in September. This has fear investors, as the Fed would continue its existing pace of rate hikes to control inflation.
The economic data released in China was disappointing while Japan released encouraging data during the week. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar against Asian currencies continued to weigh on Asian market sentiment last week.
In the coming week, the manufacturing and services PMI, and US non-farm payroll data will focus. The Chinese market will remain closed next week due to the holiday. In the coming week, we may not see volatility like the last two weeks in the global market, as key events are now behind us, but investors should remain cautious. The other macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction are given below
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 03 October 2022 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Sept | Japan |
| 03 October 2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Sept | GB |
| 03 October 2022 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Sept | EA |
| 03 October 2022 | S&P & ISM Global Manufacturing PMI Sept | US |
| 03 October 2022 | Tokyo CPI Sept | Japan |
| 04 October 2022 | PPI Aug | EA |
| 05 October 2022 | Jibun Bank Service/Comp PMI | Japan |
| 05 October 2022 | S&P Global Service PMI | EA |
| 05 October 2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Service PMI | GB |
| 05 October 2022 | Bal Of Trade EXP/Imp | US |
| 05 October 2022 | S&P Global & ISM Service PMI | US |
| 06 October 2022 | Retail Sales MoM Aug | EA |
| 06 October 2022 | Jobless Claim | US |
| 07 October 2022 | Halifax House Price Index MoM Sept | GB |
| 07 October 2022 | Unemployment rate | US |
Indian Rupee Movements against US dollar
The Indian rupee depreciated last week and touched a new low at 82.2875 level, as FIl’s continued its selling spree in the equity markets. However, the rupee got some support after RBI raised its interest rate by 50 bps to 5.90 percent, and the rupee appreciated to 81.50. Further dip in the dollar index after touching a two-decade high after the news of the Bank of England bond-buying plan, supported the global currency markets.
The latest selling pressure from FII could further depreciate the Indian rupee in the next week. Investors should also closely monitor the crude oil prices, as raising crude oil prices could pressurise the Indian currency.
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices dropped on Friday, as the US upward inflationary pressure fears further rate hikes from Fed, which could push the US economy into a deep recession. The Brent crude future for December was down by 1.17 percent per barrel while WTI Nov futures gained 1.22 percent on a weekly basis.
There is a high chance that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output in its next meeting on Oct 5. The production cut news can surge the crude oil prices which can be negative for the Indian markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Last week, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets, they sold Rs 15862.48 crore. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers and they bought Rs 15988.29 crore during the week ended 30 September.
Foreign Investors are withdrawing funds from the Indian equity markets due to elevated bond yields and safe-haven assets dollar. After investing more than 22K crores in the Indian equity markets in August, FIIs turned net sellers in September, they sold around 18K worth of shares. If the FIIs selling spree continues then Indin markets will be under pressure. Investors should monitor closely the FIIs trend in the next week.
Conclusion:
Technically, Indian markets will become positive and can see further up move, if the Nifty close above 17200 levels, Next week markets may remain range bound. You can also follow our daily morning report for the market direction.
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