Stock Market Prediction Next Week (7- 11 Aug 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (7- 11 Aug 2023): Indian stock markets snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday but extended losses for the second consecutive week. The domestic markets were impacted by the unexpected US credit rating downgrade by Fitch rating on late Tuesday.
The persistent selling by foreign investors in Indian equity markets also dampened the market sentiments. The downside was capped due to strong economic data and some positive quarterly earnings during the week.
In the coming week, markets will be focusing mainly on RBI interest rate decisions, quarterly earnings, and global cues. On the global front, US and China’s inflation data, UK GDP growth rate, and Michigan consumer sentiments will largely influence the markets. The other key factors likely to influence the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (7-11 Aug 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty Prediction
After the sharp fall, Nifty witnessed a decent recovery from the important 19300 zone. The Nifty index has formed almost like a “Morning Star” like pattern on the daily chart. It is anticipating a further pullback till the 19600-19650 zone.
The bias has improved to some extent and a decisive breach above the 19650 level will further strengthen the trend to retest the psychological 20000 landmark once again. The nifty index could trade in a range of 19300-19650 levels.
Bank Nifty index also witnessed a decent pullback on Friday and closed above the 44700 zone which is where the significant 50EMA level lies to improve the bias. The Bank Nifty index has got important near-term support at around the 44300 zone.
On the upside, if the pullback recovery sustains above the 45500 levels in Bank Nifty, then the overall bias will turn positive. We can anticipate a further rise to retest the peak zone 46370 levels. Bank Nifty would likely to trade in a range of 43800-45800 levels in the coming week,
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic Data
On Friday, The RBI data showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves declined $3.2 billion to $603.87 billion for the week ending July 28. In the previous week, the reserves fell by $1.9 billion.
In the coming week, on the macroeconomic front, the Industrial Production (IIP) and Manufacturing production data for June are expected on 11 August. Industrial production in India rose 5.2 percent YoY in May 2023, increasing from 4.2 percent in May.
According to market experts, as India’s eight core industry data came at 5 month high at 8.2% in June, we can expect the IIP data to accelerate further. Other than this Bank loan and deposit growth and foreign exchange reserves are also expected on the same day.
RBI Monetary Policy
The RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) will be meeting on 8-10 August and the interest rate decision will be announced on 10 Aug 2023 by Governor Shaktikanta Das. The RBI is expected to keep the repo rates unchanged in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review. The central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% since February.
RBI is likely to maintain a cautious and hawkish stance in its next week’s policy meeting due to the rise in inflation. June’s retail inflation has accelerated to 4.81% after hitting a 25-low in May at 4.25% and this is due to a rise in food and vegetable prices.
Experts feel that CPI inflation will continue to rise in the next few months as the erratic effect of the monsoon affected the farmers. Saktikanta Das’s commentary after the policy announcement will be important for the markets and will set the market direction.
1st Quarter Earnings
We are in the mid of the first quarterly earnings season and the traders will be closely watching the next week’s Nifty 50 companies quarterly earnings. In the coming week, there are 6 Nifty 50 companies that will announce their Q1FY24 earnings and the markets are likely to get influenced by the results. The schedule for the next week’s Nifty 50 companies’ earnings is given below.
| Q1FY24 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 8 August 2023 | Coal India |
| 8 August 2023 | Hindalco |
| 8 August 2023 | Adani Ports |
| 10 August 2023 | Grasim |
| 10 August 2023 | Hero Motors |
| 11 August 2023 | ONGC |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets mostly ended in the red last week after the unexpected US credit rating downgrade. However, the stock market indexes in China surged due to stimulus support from Beijing. The quarterly earnings in the US were mixed while it mostly disappoints in Europe during the week.
In the coming week, the earnings will remain focused, as we will be getting earnings reports from Eli Lilly, UPS, The Walt Disney Company, Honda Motor Company, and Alibaba, among others. CPI inflation data from US and China will influence the markets.
The UK GDP data and Michigan Consumer Sentiments in the US will be announced on the last trading day of next week. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macro Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 7 August 2023 | Halifax House Price Index Jul | GB |
| 8 August 2023 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor JUL | GB |
| 8 August 2023 | Household Spending & Current Account June | Japan |
| 8 August 2023 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp July | China |
| 8 August 2023 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp June | US |
| 8 August 2023 | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Aug | US |
| 9 August 2023 | Inflation Rate/ PPI | China |
| 10 August 2023 | PPI July | Japan |
| 10 August 2023 | CPI & Core Inflation July | US |
| 10 August 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 11 August 2023 | GDP Growth Rate Q2 | GB |
| 11 August 2023 | Industrial Production June | GB |
| 11 August 2023 | Balance of Tarde June | GB |
| 11 August 2023 | PPI July/ Core PPI | US |
| 11 August 2023 | Michigan Consumer Expection Aug | US |
| 11 August 2023 | Michigan Inflation Expectation Aug | US |
| 11 August 2023 | Michigan Consumer Sentiments Aug | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The Crude oil prices gained for the sixth consecutive week, as Saudi Arabia announced a production cut of one million barrels per day from September. Saudi Arabia’s production cut announcement came just ahead of the OPEC+ meeting that was held on Zoom last Friday. Russia also announced to reduce its export by 300000 barrels per day.
On a weekly basis, WTI crude oil prices rose 2.8% at ended at $82.82 per barrel while Brent crude oil gained almost 2% and settled at $86.24 per barrel. Market experts feel that WTI could rise to $86 per barrel and Brent could hit $90 per barrel in the coming week.
As the inflation rate is rising in India due to a surge in food and vegetable prices, a further rise in crude oil prices could accelerate the domestic inflation rate. Traders should closely monitor the trend in crude oil prices, as it could dampen the market sentiments next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net sellers in the Indian equity markets. They persistently sold shares in the last seven trading sessions and offloaded shares worth Rs 3545.67 crore during the week. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the net buyers last week, they bought shares worth Rs 5617.36 crore, a bit more than the FIIs selling, and supported the domestic market from a big fall.
In the last seven trading sessions, FIIs have offloaded shares worth Rs 8548.9 crore in the Indian equity markets. If the selling spree continues in the coming week we may see more downfall in the Indian markets. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs activity in the coming week to know the market direction.
Conclusion
The Indian equity benchmarks made a decent recovery from the support levels on Friday. Going ahead, further strengthening in the trends could confirm the up move in the market. Traders need to closely monitor the above-mentioned factors, which can influence the stock market prediction next week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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