Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9- 13 Jan 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9- 13 Jan 2023): Indian equity markets closed lower for the first week of the calendar year 2023. The key equity indices declined more than 1 percent during the week. The market sentiments were downbeat due to weak global cues and persistent selling by foreign investors in the Indian equity markets.
In the coming week on the domestic front, the focus will be on Q3 earnings, inflation rate, and IIP data. On the global front, investors will closely monitor the inflation reading of the US, China, and Japan during the week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction next are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (9- 13 Jan 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
On Friday, the Nifty index extended the losses further and formed a bearish pattern on the chart with a crucial support zone of 17800. A further decisive breach below the support zone would trigger fresh selling pressure to anticipate a further slide in the index. The bias turned weak, now all eyes will be on the Q3 results of IT giants Infosys and TCS in the coming week. The weekly support for the Nifty index is seen at 17500 while the resistance is seen at 18200 levels.
Bank Nifty has also extended the loss on Friday, breaching below the significant levels of 42380 to weaken the bias and further has the important support zone of 41500-41550 levels breaching which further intensified selling pressure can be anticipated in the banking sector. Bank Nifty will trade in the range of 41100-43300 levels.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Q3 Earnings
The third quarter (Q3FY23) earning season will begin next week. The IT major TCS will kickstart its third-quarter earnings on 9th January Monday. Below are other Nifty 50 companies that will announce their third-quarter earnings next week.
| Q3FY23 Result dates for Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 9 Jan 2023 | TCS |
| 12 Jan 2023 | HCL Tech |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Infosys |
| 13 Jan 2023 | Wipro |
| 14 Jan 2023 | HDFC Bank |
Macroeconomic data
On 6th Jan, the statistics ministry released the first advance GDP estimates for the current fiscal year. The GDP growth is estimated at 7 percent for FY22-23. The growth is estimated above the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 6.8 percent. Indian markets will first react to the news on Monday. The markets will focus on the Industrial production data and CPI-based inflation data in the coming week.
Economist feels that India’s inflation is likely to climb in December. The CPI-based inflation may further rise above 6%, the upper band of the RBI comfort zone in the month of December. Traders should remain cautious as this may impact negatively on the markets. The other key macroeconomic data expected next week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 12 January 2023 | Industrial Production Nov |
| 12 January 2023 | CPI Inflation Dec |
| 13 January 2023 | Bank loan & Deposit growth Dec |
| 13 January 2023 | Foreign exchange Reserve |
| 13 January 2023 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Dec |
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
The global stock markets mostly closed higher for the 1st week of the calendar month of 2023. In the early week, global markets traded negatively due to fear of interest rate hikes and recession. The unfavorable economic data from US and FOMC minutes added some pessimism in the markets.
However, on Friday, the official job report from the US labor department showed signs of slowing wage growth. The services PMI data also reported a contraction in December and this reversed the global market direction into a positive on Friday. The decline in Eurozone inflation also helped to lift the mood of investors on Friday.
In the coming week, The Fed’s chair Powell’s speech, inflation data from the US, China, and Japan will remain focused and set the market direction, The other key global market factors that are likely to impact the markets are as follow.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 09 January 2023 | Unemployment rate Nov | EA |
| 09 January 2023 | Consumer inflation expectation Dec | US |
| 10 January 2023 | Tokyo CPI Dec | Japan |
| 10 January 2023 | BRC retail Sales Monitor Dec | GB |
| 10 January 2023 | Fed Chair Powell’s Speech | US |
| 12 January 2023 | Current Account | Japan |
| 12 January 2023 | Inflation Rate Dec | China |
| 12 January 2023 | PPI Dec | China |
| 12 January 2023 | Core & CPI Inflation Dec | US |
| 12 January 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 13 January 2023 | Balance of trade Exp/Imp | China |
| 13 January 2023 | GDP & Industrial Production | GB |
| 13 January 2023 | Balance of trade Nov | GB |
| 13 January 2023 | Industrial production | EA |
| 13 January 2023 | Balance of Trade | EA |
| 13 January 2023 | Michigan Consumer expectation Prel Jan | US |
| 13 January 2023 | Michigan inflation expectation Prel Jan | US |
Crude Oil Prices
The crude oil prices closed almost flat on Friday, as the market balanced a weaker US dollar and mixed US job reports. While both the oil benchmarks ended the first week of the calendar year 2023 with deep cuts due to global recession concerns.
On a weekly bases both Brent and WTI crude fell over 8%, their biggest weekly decline since 2016. As per the market analyst, the crude oil may move northward direction after a sharp decline, but the upside potential remains limited at least for the near term. The domestic markets will get the benefits of falling crude oil prices
Covid-19 Cases
As per the latest news published, freight booking cancellations are increasing at the ports of Shanghai and Shenzhen as factories cannot operate properly due to a lot of workers getting Covid infections in recent days. The latest PMI manufacturing and services data in China showed a contraction, marking the biggest decline since February 2020. This threats a global economic slowdown which can impact the stock markets.
Covid-19 cases are spreading in other countries also like the US, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea, while it is under control in India. Now the greatest concern is, whether new variants will emerge from the mass infection unfolding in China and spread to other countries like the delta and omicron variants, only time can tell. Traders need to closely monitor the Covid related news next week.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell in the Indian equity markets during the week. Foreign investors have offloaded Rs 7813.44 crore worth of shares while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers and they bought Rs 2756.58 crore in the cash segment for the week that ended on 6 Jan 2023.
After buying in the month of November, FIIs turned net sellers again in December. Foreign investors offloaded around 14K worth of shares in December due to rising Covid-19 cases in China and many other countries and concern about global economic growth.
FIIs have been selling in the Indian equity markets for 11 consecutive trading sessions, pulling out liquidity from the markets. Traders should keep a close eye on FIIs activity, if foreign investors turned buyers then we may see an up move in the markets.
Conclusion:
Indian stock markets closed sharply lower on Friday. The global markets turned positive on Friday after the US monthly job reports and cooling inflation in the eurozone. Monday, the domestic stock markets are likely to open higher, and then Q3 earnings, inflation, and global cues will drive the markets for the rest of the days in the coming week. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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