Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27 Feb-3 March 2023)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27 Feb-3 March 2023): Indian stock markets ended sharply lower for the week that ended 24 Feb. The sentiments were hit due to FIIs selling and weak global cues. The US Fed’s minutes of the last meeting indicated that more interest rates are on the card to tame inflation. The strong US economic data and rising inflation sparked a selloff in the global markets and dampened the domestic market sentiments last week.
In the coming week, macroeconomic data like GDP and PMI numbers will set the market direction in the near term. However, global cues, Auto sales, FIIs activity, crude oil prices, and geopolitical tension will remain focused during the week. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction as given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (27 Feb-3 March 2023)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
The Nifty index continues to trade lower for the 6th straight session breaching below the 17500 zone with sentiment and bias getting weaker. As mentioned earlier, Nifty has got the next major support zone near 17350 levels (at the significant 200DMA level) and thereafter has the 17100 level as the major support zone. The Nifty index could trade in a range of 17100-17800 levels next week.
The Bank Nifty index is also indicating weakness, it has breached below the 40000 zone, as most of the frontline banking stocks showing weak bias and further slide anticipated. Similarly, as said earlier, the index has got the next major support zone near 39500 levels and thereafter 39200 of the significant 200DMA levels. The Bank Nifty would trade in a weekly range of 38600-41100 levels.
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Macroeconomic data
According to RBI data showed on Friday, India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $5.7 billion to an 11-week low of $561.27 billion in the week ended February 17. This is the third straight week the foreign reserves declined.
Next week, the domestic markets will focus on Q3 GDP data, which is expected on 28th February. The Indian economic growth likely slowed by 4.6% during the Oct-dec end quarter amid weakening demand and a series of interest rate hikes and according to a Reuters poll of economies. However, other surveys also predicted growth to be lower than the previous quarter, and it could be in the range of 4% to 5.8%, and the markets will react negatively if comes below Reuter’s poll.
The GST numbers and PMI manufacturing and services activity data for the month of Feb will also remain focused during the week. The other macroeconomic data expected during the week are given below.
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 28 February 2023 | GDP Growth rate Q3 |
| 28 February 2023 | Government Budget Vakue Jan |
| 28 February 2023 | Infrastructure Output Jan |
| 01 March 2023 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Jan |
| 03 March 2023 | S&P Global Services PMI Jan |
| 03 March 2023 | Foreign Exchange Reserve |
Auto Sales
The Nifty auto index is down around 2% in February. The auto stocks will remain focused in the coming week, as the auto companies will start announcing their February month sales figures from March 1. Investors having a position in auto stocks should remain cautious.
Rupee vs Dollar Movement
The Indian rupee’s movement against the US dollar was largely flat during the week. The rupee was slightly changed on Friday against the dollar and was marginally up from last Friday. The domestic currency had a narrow trading range of 82.61 to 82.85 during the week.
The RBI might have sold dollars in the last week to make sure that the rupee did not slide below the psychological 83 levels to the dollar and this has supported the Indian rupee to outperform its major Asian peers. Traders should closely monitor the rupee movement next week, as the depreciation in the rupee is negative for the market.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week, the negative global cues impacted the domestic markets and triggered a selloff for all five trading sessions. The global sentiments were downbeat after the Fed’s minutes of the last meeting revealed that more interest rates are on the card to tame inflation. Further, strong US economic data and rising inflation fret investors, as the data indicated that the central bank may go aggressive in interest rate hikes in the March meeting.
Japan and European stock markets were also impacted due to fear of rate hikes and geopolitical tension. While Chinese markets gained on hopes for continued regulatory support which offset concerns about elevated U.S. tensions.
In the coming week, the global markets focus will now shift to macroeconomic data. Traders should closely monitor the growth of business actively data. The major macroeconomic data that are scheduled for the next week and are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Global Macroeconomic Data
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 27 February 2023 | Economic Sentiments | EA |
| 27 February 2023 | Durable Goods Order Jan | US |
| 27 February 2023 | Pending Home Sales Jan | US |
| 28 February 2023 | Industrial Production Jan | Japan |
| 28 February 2023 | Retail Sales-Jan | Japan |
| 28 February 2023 | Housing Starts Jan | Japan |
| 01 March 2023 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Jan | Japan |
| 01 March 2023 | NBS Manfg & Non-Mannufg PMI Jan | China |
| 01 March 2023 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | China |
| 01 March 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Jan | GB |
| 01 March 2023 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | US |
| 01 March 2023 | ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan | US |
| 02 March 2023 | Consumer Confidence Feb | Japan |
| 02 March 2023 | Unemployment Rate | EA |
| 02 March 2023 | Inflation Rate | EA |
| 02 March 2023 | Initial Jobless Claim Feb | US |
| 03 March 2023 | Unemployment Rate-Jan | Japan |
| 03 March 2023 | Tokyo CPI-Feb | Japan |
| 03 March 2023 | Jibun Bank Services PMI Feb | Japan |
| 03 March 2023 | Ciaxin Services PMI Feb | China |
| 03 March 2023 | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Feb | GB |
| 03 March 2023 | S&P Global Services PMI Feb | US |
| 03 March 2023 | S&P Global Services PMI Feb | EA |
Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil prices closed higher in volatile trade on Friday but remain flat on a weekly basis. Oil prices were supported by the prospect of an output cut of Russian oil from March but remain pressured by rising inventories in the United States and concerns over the global economic outlook.
The Russian production cut of 500,000 barrels per day is bullish for crude oil prices but US stockpiles of crude inventories and the Fed’s further monetary policy tightening could be negative for crude prices. According to JP Morgan, short-term prices are more likely to drift lower toward the $70s than rise. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil price, as domestic markets will get support if oil trades lower.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers in the Indian equity markets last week. They have offloaded Rs 3100.55 crore worth of shares while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) invested Rs 3209.6 crore in the cash segment during the week that ended on 24 Feb 2023.
After investing in the previous week, FIIs have again started selling in the Indian equity markets. As of now, in February, FIIs sold equity worth Rs 4,508.91 crore, while DIIs bought equities worth Rs 12,397.75 crore. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs and DIIs activity during the week, as heavy selling by the FIIs could impact the domestic stock markets
Conclusion:
In the coming week, the Indian stock markets will be impacted by factors such as macroeconomic data, global cues, and February auto sales numbers. As mentioned earlier FIIs & DIIs activity, the rupee’s movement against the US dollar, and the crude oil trend may also influence the local stock markets in the coming week.
The global stock market trends indicate that the downward trends in the domestic markets are likely to continue in the near term but strong economic data could improve the sentiments in the latter half. You can also follow our Daily Morning Report at 7.30 am to know the market direction.
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