Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5-9 Dec 2022)
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5-9 Dec 2022): Indian equity markets gained nearly 1 percent during the week that ended on 2 December. The market sentiments were positive with the hopes that the US Fed would slow down the interest rate hikes in December. The FIIs inflow and optimistic economic data released during the week also supported the markets. However, the upside was limited as some cautiousness was seen on the last day of the week ahead of the US monthly job report.
In the coming week, all eyes all be set on RBI’s monetary policy outcome, which is due on 7 December. On the global front, Service PMI data, GDP growth of Europe and Japan, and China’s Inflation data will set the global market direction. The other key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction are given below.
Stock Market Prediction Next Week (5- 9 Dec 2022)
Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly prediction
Nifty took a pause after resisting near the 18900 levels and witnessed some profit booking to close near the 18696 on-the-spot levels. The equity benchmark index drags on Friday, as heavyweight stocks like M&M, HUL, HDFC Ltd, Infy, TCS, ICICI Bank, and L&T sheds some of their gains from the higher levels. The Nifty has immediate support levels at 18500 and can expect some consolidation as of now. The Nifty can trade in the range of 19000 -18300 levels in the coming week.
Bank Nifty, as discussed last week continued to trade in a range between 43400-42700 levels. The index needs to breach the above range, to carry the momentum further in either direction. Bank Nifty would trade in a range of 44100- 42000 in the coming week.
You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies, and market updates on our Website or Telegram Channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1
Macroeconomic data
According to the RBI data released on 2nd December, the country’s foreign exchange reserve rose by $2.890 billion in the week ending November 25 to $550.142 billion. The foreign exchange reserve rose for the third straight week in a row and the markets will react positively to the data on Monday. On Monday, the S&P Global services PMI data will be released during market hours. The S&P Global India Services PMI was up to 55.1 in October 2022 from September’s six-month low of 54.3, exceeding market forecasts of 54.6.
RBI Monetary Policy
Next week all eyes will be set on the RBI Monetary policy outcome which is due on 7th December. The market experts have suggested that the RBI MPC may hike the repo rate by another 25-35 bps in its two-day meeting scheduled for December 5-7, 2022. The main reason for a slowdown in interest rates is a decline in the inflation rate.
Experts also feel CPI-based inflation is likely to moderate further in November and may slip below RBI’s upper band in the coming months. RBI’s commentary will be essential to watch out for the projection of Inflation and economic growth. Indian markets will react positively if RBI hike interest rate as per expectation on Wednesday.
Global Stock Market Prediction Next Week
Last week, the global markets rallied after getting the indication of slow down in US interest rate hikes. On Friday, the strong US job report initially shattered the hopes, later investors picked up on some mixed signals in the report, such as a decline in the average workweek for private-sector employees, which pared the intraday losses. The slight ease in covid restriction in Beijing, and the decline in eurozone inflation also supported the global market sentiments during the week. Read the global stock market news updates for the last week here.
In the coming week, the global markets are likely to remain positive. The Services PMI data, the eurozone retail sales data, Q3 GDP numbers in Japan and Europe, and China’s inflation data will remain focused. The other key macroeconomic data that are likely to impact the global stock markets are given below.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 05 December 2022 | Jibun Bank Services PMI Nov | Japan |
| 05 December 2022 | Caixin Services PMI Nov | China |
| 05 December 2022 | ECB President Lagarde’s Speech | EA |
| 05 December 2022 | S&P Global Service & Composite PMI Nov | EA |
| 05 December 2022 | S&P Global/CIPS Service PMI Nov | GB |
| 05 December 2022 | Retail Sales OCT | EA |
| 05 December 2022 | S&P Global /ISM Services and Non-Mfg PMI | US |
| 06 December 2022 | BRC Retail Sales Monitoring Nov | GB |
| 06 December 2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Oct | US |
| 07 December 2022 | Balance of Trade Exp/Imp Nov | China |
| 07 December 2022 | Halifax House Price Index Nov | GB |
| 07 December 2022 | GDP Growth rate Q3 | EA |
| 08 December 2022 | GDP Growth rate Q3 | Japan |
| 08 December 2022 | Current Account Oct | Japan |
| 08 December 2022 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 08 December 2022 | ECB President Lagarde’s Speech | EA |
| 09 December 2022 | Inflation Rate Nov | China |
| 09 December 2022 | PPI Nov | China |
| 09 December 2022 | PPI Nov | US |
| 09 December 2022 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Dec | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Last week the crude oil prices rallied as hopes grew that China will continue to ease their covid restriction and expectations that OPEC+ will cut production and take necessary steps to support the falling crude oil prices. On a weekly basis, WTI crude oil prices rallied over 5% while Brent crude gained more than 2 percent.
Meanwhile, European Union has tentatively agreed to a $60 per barrel cap on Russian seaborne oil, though Russia said it won’t accept the price cap and will reply soon. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the OPEC+ decision on the output cut, the meeting is due on Sunday. Any output cut on crude oil, ease in covid restriction in China, or a harsh reply from Russia could rally crude oil prices in the coming week. A rally in crude oil prices could be a negative for the domestic equity markets.
FII & DIIs flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were turned into net buyers in the Indian equity markets during the week. They bought Rs 15067.55 crore worth of shares while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers and they sold Rs 1335.57 crore in the cash segment for the week that ended on 2 December.
Indian equity benchmarks continue to hit record highs and the rupee got appreciation during the week with the support of FIIs inflow. In the month of November, FIIs bought over Rs 22000 crore worth of shares in the Indian equity markets. If the buying spree continues then we may see a series of new record high in the coming week too.
Conclusion:
Indian stock markets gained four out of five trading sessions in the last week. In the coming week, markets will remain volatile, as RBI monetary policy will be in focus and set the direction ahead, overall market sentiments will be positive for the next week. You can follow our daily Morning Report at 7.30 am IST, to know the market direction.
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