Weekly market updates: Key factors that will move Nifty50 next week

Weekly Market updates Nifty50 & Sensex: Last week the Indian stock market has recovered most of Budget week’s losses. A continuous four-days smart V-Shape recovery was witnessed in the week. Support from the global market, falling crude oil prices, positive PMI data, and Q3 earnings have boosted the Indian market to recover the Budget week’s losses. 

 

Weekly Markets Updates: Nifty50 & Sensex

The RBI monetary policy announced the last Thursday was as per expectation. Indian markets reacted positively after the announcement of unchanged in repo rate and accommodative stance in Monetary policy.

On a weekly basis, the Nifty50 index gained 436.5 points or 3.64% and closed at 12098.35. Whereas Sensex has gained 1406.32 points or 3.43% and closed at 41141.85. Some positive movements were seen in the PSU Banks last week particularly post RBI Policy. The Bank Nifty gained 1381.05 points or 4.46% and closed at 31201.95 last Friday.

The Nifty midcap & smallcap index gain the most. Nifty midcap 100 index gained 846.95 points or 4.71% while smallcap was up by 190.25 points or 3.19%. 

The top five gainers in the Nifty50 index last week were JSW Steel, Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Tata Steel, and  Titan Company. The losers in the Nifty50 index stocks were ITC, Zee Entertainment, L&T, Eicher Motors, and Hero Motor Corp JSW steel gained 11.41% while ITC fell 9.25% last week. 

In the midcap space, Ajanta Pharma, HEG were the gainers and Mannapurram and Varroc Engineers were the losers last week. In smallcap space, Welspun Corp, Aegis Logistic were the gainers and Indiabulls Real estate, RCF were the losers last week. 

Almost all major sectors gained in the last week except Media, Auto, and Real Estate.

On a weekly basis, FIIs were the seller and DIIs were buyers in the cash segment. FIIs sold Rs 983.55 crores and DIIs bought Rs 2097.08 crore in the cash segment last week.

 

Last week in the derivative market updates: Nifty50 & Bank Nifty

The Nifty50 index in futures opened at 11598 on 3rd February Monday. It has touched weekly high at 12167 and low same at the opening level 11598. During the week, the Nifty50 index in futures had given a movement of 569 points.

The Bank Nifty future opened at 29729.90 on last Monday. It has touched a weekly high on 31530.90 on 6th February and low at 29530 on 3rd February Monday. During the week, the Bank Nifty future had given a movement of 2000.9 points.

 

Last week’s market movers

The Manufacturing PMI data released last Monday has seen some recovery in the last month. It rose to a nearly eight-year high of 55.3 in January 2020 as compared to 52.7 on December 19.

As per RBI’s latest data the bank’s credit and deposit grew by 7.2% and 9.51% to Rs 100.05 lakh crore and Rs 131.26 lakh crore respectively.

The global rating agency Moody’s comment on the Indian Budget boost the market sentiments last week. Moody has stated that the economic growth projections made by FM Nirmal Sitharaman appear ambitious given the structural and cyclical challenges facing the Indian economy.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India has increased on an annual basis at $34.90 billion till November in this financial year. The January Service PMI has also increased at 55.5 against 53.3 on the MoM basis. India’s Composite PMI at 56.3 against 53.7 on MoM.

RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged and maintained an accommodative stance to support economic growth. Indian stock market reacted positively to the RBI Monetary policy on 6th February.

 

Last week’s stocks in the news

Coal India’s production increased by 10.3% at 63.11 Mt as compared to 57.21 Mt on a YoY basis. The Company’s January sales increased by 6.9% at 56 MT against 52.44 MT (YoY). The share price reacted positively last week on the news.

The rise in excise duty on tobacco and cigarettes in the 2020 Budget has negatively reacted to the share price of ITC.

L&T construction metallurgical & material handling strategic business group has got an order from Etihad Rail Company PJSC for design and Build of Freight Handling facilities at 7 strategic locations across UAE. L&T and ideaForge have done MoU to offer Drone and allied products for defense use.

Reliance will start a new production from the KG D  project by mid-2020.

The SRF’s Board of Directors had approved to set up a range of dedicated plants to produce specialty chemicals with a budget cost of Rs 238 crores. The share price of SRF reacted positively to the news last week.

Radhakrishan Damani led Avenue Supermart (D-Mart) Board of Directors has approved the launch of Rs 4000 crore QIP. The share price of Avenue Supermart reacted positively to the news.

SBI has reduced 5 bps in the MCLR to 7.85% post RBI policy. The reduction is in its MCLR across the tenors and will be effective from 10th February.

TCS has done MOU with Coop Sweden to develop its business transformation program with the introduction of new automation technologies and agile ways of working.

 

Market events for next week

Next week the Nifty50 stocks that will announce Q3 earnings are GAIL, Grasim, Coal India, Hindalco, Nestle. There are more than 2000 plus midcap and smallcap companies will announce their Q3 earnings next week.

On 12th February, the macro data like IIP and CPI inflation data will be announced after the market. The WPI data will be announced on 14th February, Friday.

The Delhi Assembly election result will be announced on 11th February, Tuesday.  The exit polls by various agencies have predicted Kejriwal- led government to retain power in Delhi The Indian equity market may be volatile on Tuesday.

On the global front, the worry of coronavirus has not yet eased. The global market is still worried about the deadly virus which has killed more than 700 people in China. The business activities in Wahun and other virus affected areas in China have closed. This may result in slow economic growth in China.

 

Next week Technical Levels of Nifty50 and Bank Nifty share price

Primary Trend Nifty50 Futures: Mild Up

Range-Bound Trend of Nifty Futures: Nifty future will range from 12000 – 12220 during the week 

Primary Trend of Banknifty Future: Mild Up

Range-Bound Trend of Bank Nifty Future: Bank Nifty future will move in the range of 30600- 31950 during the next week.

 

Crude and Rupee Updates 

After the coronavirus outbreak in China, a slowdown in demand for crude oil was seen. The current stability in the crude oil price is an advantage for Indian economic growth where 80% of crude oil demand is met through imports. The Brent crude oil future corrected 6.34% in the last week. It has touched a weekly high at $56.77 and a low at $53.69 during the week and closed at $54.45 per barrel.

Last week Indian Rupee got an appreciation of 0.06% against the US dollar from the previous week. It has now closed at Rs71.52 against the US dollar.

 

Conclusions:

The Indian stock market closed last week on a positive note. In the coming week, the market will move as per global cues, macro data. Some volatility can be seen on Tuesday due to election results. FIIs are the net seller so far in the cash segment in February, traders should also track FIIs position on a daily basis.

Traders can follow our daily Nifty50 and Bank Nifty technical views and market updates.

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Editor’s Desk