Weekly Stock Market Prediction for 29 Nov to 3 Dec 2021
Weekly Stock Market Prediction ( 29 Nov to 3 Dec 2021): Indian equity markets declined more than 4 percent during the week ended 26 November. The Indian markets closed lower mainly due to the heavy sell-off on the last day of the week. The global markets were plunged on Friday as scientists in South Africa confirmed that a new Covid variant is found, which is more contagious than the delta variants.
Earlier in the week, Indian markets were traded subdued due to heavy FIIs outflow, rising inflation in the US, faster than expected tapering of the stimulus program, and sooner than an expected interest rate hike. In the coming week, markets will remain volatile, other than the news of new covid variants the domestic market will react to India’s GDP, PMI, and Auto Sales numbers.
Key factors that are likely to impact the stock market prediction for 29th Nov to 3 Dec 2021
New Covid Variants & Risk
The resurgence of covid cases in the European countries created volatility and hit the market sentiments in the month of November. Friday’s news of new covid variants found in South Africa pressed the panic button among traders and triggered a huge sell-off in the global markets. Europe and several other countries already imposed covid related restrictions and lockdowns and are now forced to close borders to curb new variants. Other than South Africa the new Covid variants were also found in Hong Kong, Belgium, Israel, and the UK.
In India the covid infection is declining, the last week the daily cases were around 10K. The progress in Covid vaccination is also going smoothly. India already administered more than 121 crore vaccination with around 35 percent of the population vaccinated with two doses. Going ahead, the market will closely watch out for the spread of new covid variants globally.
Auto Sales Number
Auto sales numbers for the month of November will start from the 1st of December. The festive season is usually a season of a big sale for the auto industry, but this season car sales have hit hard. According to experts, Diwali 2021 was the worst car sales in the last decade. The main reasons for the decline in auto sales are chip shortages and reduced demand due to the covid-19 pandemic. Auto stocks have already corrected more than 2 percent last week, traders need to closely watch out for the auto sales numbers to be announced next week
GDP & other economic data
On 30 November, the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the Q2 for the FY 2021-22 will be released. The research houses and economists have forecasted the GDP numbers in the range of 7.5-9 percent, the GDP growth rate for Q1FY22 was 20.1 percent due to the low base effect. The other economic data that can create volatility in the domestic markets and impact the Stock Market Prediction for the next week are given below
| Economic Data Next Week | |
| 30-November21 | Infrastructure Output YoY Oct |
| 30-November21 | GDP Growth Rate Sept end Quarter |
| 01-December21 | Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov |
| 03-December21 | Markit Service PMI Nov |
| 03-December21 | Export/ Import Prel Nov |
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Global Market Cues
Last week, the new variants of Covid-19 found in South Africa triggered the stocks sell-off button globally. The global markets may continue to trade in a negative bias in the coming week due to ongoing concern about the high inflation, asset tapering, and interest rate hike news in the US, and of course the new Covid variants- Omicron.
In the coming week, PMI data, Fed’s speech, and the US unemployment rate will also dominate the global market sentiments.
| Important Global Macro Data Next Week | ||
| 29 November 21 | Retail Sales Oct | Japan |
| 30 November 21 | Fed Chair Powell Speech | US |
| 30 November 21 | Unemployment rate | Japan |
| 30 November 21 | Industrial Production Prel Oct | Japan |
| 30 November 21 | NBS Manufg & Non-Mfg Nov PMI | China |
| 1 December 21 | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final Nov | Japan |
| 1 December 21 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final Nov | China |
| 1 December 21 | Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Nov | GB |
| 1 December 21 | Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov | US |
| 2 December 21 | Consumer Confidence | Japan |
| 2 December 21 | Initial Jobless Claim | US |
| 3 December 21 | Jibun Bank Service PMI Final Nov | Japan |
| 3 December 21 | Caixin Service PMI Final Nov | China |
| 3 December 21 | Markit/CIPS Service PMI Nov | GB |
| 3 December 21 | Markit Service PMI Nov | US |
| 3 December 21 | Unemployment rate | US |
Crude Oil Prices
Oil price was volatile last week, it took a big hit last Friday as new Covid variant cases raised fears of demand slowdown when the supply started increasing. Falling crude oil price is good for importing countries like India and China but an increase in volatility may raise inflation. So the market will keep watch on crude oil prices next week.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures prediction for the week (29 Nov- 3 Dec)
Nifty futures current position is on Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Nifty futures close above 17215.
Bank Nifty futures current position is Sell, traders can continue the Sell position and reverse to the Buy position if Bank Nifty futures close above 37220
FII & DIIs flow
The Foreign Institutional investors were the seller and the Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were the buyers in the Indian stock markets during the week ended 26 November. FIIs are continuously selling in the Indian stock markets since April 2021 except for September.
On Friday, a massive foreign fund outflow was triggered in the Indian equity markets due to new Covid variants found in South Africa. FIIs sold 21124.95 crores, the highest-selling is any week in 2021 whereas DIIs bought Rs 10934.76 crore in the cash market segment during the week ended 26 November.
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